Archive for category: New Hampshire

The hallmark of the next 10-15 days will be a slow-moving weather pattern. After a storm scoots out to sea south of Southern New England bringing chilly showers on Saturday, there will be three mainly dry days into the middle of next week. Eventually, another storm system will move into the Northeast and showers and thunderstorms are possibly Wednesday and/or Thursday of next week. The rain could be heavy at times depending on the exact track of the storm.

More dry weather is likely at the end of next workweek, and through next weekend. We’re still keeping our eye out for a brief cold shot around October 20. In this pattern, we also need to watch for storms to develop near the Southeastern United States and move north. There are signs that could happen in the last ten days of October.

Much of Southeastern New England remains in a moderate drought, but that may be short-lived with a couple of rain events ahead, and already a decent amount of rain so far this month.

It looks like we’ll continue to come out of a dry stretch of weather with rain or shower threats every few days for the next couple of weeks. Showers are likely on Saturday, primarily in the afternoon and evening. Sunday through Tuesday looks dry before another front brings rain in the middle of next week. There may be a third front in the next 10 days coming through on Columbus Day weekend. I’m not as convinced that we’ll see steady rain from that one. We’ll have to keep an eye on the tropical system in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and where it’s remnants move through the Southwest US.

The overall pattern is not super exciting temperature-wise. Most days will be near normal, and nights will probably average above normal in the next two weeks. It does not look like we have any early blasts of very cold weather heading our way. The tropics also continue looking sleep in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday’s rain storm was close but not close enough for most of Southern New England. Cape Cod and Nantucket received 1-2″ of rain, but the totals were paltry for most areas west of the Cape Cod Canal, including all of Rhode Island. Dry and warm weather is likely through the weekend into early next week, and our next shot at rain is in the middle of next week as another storm develops along or off the Eastern Seaboard. The jury is out on how close the storm will come and whether we’ll get beneficial rain, but the potential exists for at least showers from Tuesday-Thursday of next week. In any event, the temperature will go from well above normal to near/below normal Tuesday through Thursday. It should moderate to near or above normal next weekend.

Another system will move through the Northeast late next weekend, and that one could bring showers.You may remember there was a moderate drought last fall before heavy rain in late November ended it. In general, the pattern looks fairly active in the Eastern United States in early October, and that should give us possible rain every few days. It does not look like it will be terribly cold at any point through the first 10 days of October.

A few measly showers on Sunday brought the rain total for the month to just over a half-inch in the Providence area. If there is no rain for the rest of the month, which is possible, then this will be the second driest September on record, trailing only 1914 when there was 0.48″ for the month. It looks like there are two shots at rain during the rest of September. First, we’ll keep an eye on a system that develops along the Southeast Coast and drifts north late in the workweek. Right now, it looks like it stays just offshore, but the system that brought rain on Sunday also looked like it was going to stay away. These systems have a tendency to drift closer to the coast than what the models predict a few days out.

Overall, the pattern will be warmer than normal for the rest of the month and early October. The dry and pleasant weather through the middle of this week is actually pretty close to normal (70°/50°) for this time of the year.

The next best chance of rain is in the middle of next week when a system may move out of the Southeastern United States and up the Appalachians. It’s 8-9 days away, but the European model has hinted at it for a few days. The GFS model keeps the Northeast dry through most of next week, too. Both the GFS and European have a cold front moving through the Northeast with showers sometime between October 3-5.

The tropics remain unusually quiet and there are no strong signs that anything significant will develop in the next two weeks.

The temperature is running 3° above normal in the Providence area at the midway point of the month. The very warm first week outweighed the much cooler second week. The average monthly temperature will continue drifting back to near normal as more cool weather is ahead for the next five days.

Aside from a few stray showers on Tuesday, there is not much rain in the forecast through the weekend. A stray shower may pop up on Thursday as a cold front moves through, but that should be the exception and not the rule. A very early frost cannot be ruled out in the interior countryside of SE MA and N RI late this week. The weather should warm up by late in the weekend.

A cold front will move through early next week. Once again, it does not look like more than scattered showers at this point. More dry weather is likely in the middle of next week. Looking way down the road, there is a chance that one of these fronts taps into some tropical moisture in the Gulf of Mexico and brings a more significant rainmaker up the East Coast. The timeframe for that possibility is in the last week of September.