Long-Range Forecast – January 29

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January is wrapping with warmer than normal weather in Southeastern New England. The winter storm last weekend cut into the snow deficit, but there is no sign of steady snow in the near-term. The next significant precipitation will be all rain in the middle of next (Wed PM into Thu AM). The temperature will be running 10-20° warmer than normal from Mon-Wed of next week.

Cooler weather arrives in the wake of the storm late next week. It looks mainly dry through next weekend. There is some promise for snow in the middle of the month as the storm track becomes more active. The pattern looks favorable for a storm somewhere in the Eastern United States the weekend of Valentine’s Day. That would be unfortunate for restaurateurs, especially since last year featured a Valentine’s Day storm in Southern New England.

While the pattern will be colder in the middle of the month, it will not approach the extreme cold that we endured most of last February. Among other things, there is not a deep snowpack in the Northeast to enhance the cold air.

Long-Range Forecast – January 26

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Relatively mild weather continues through the middle of this week in the wake of the weekend snowstorm. An ocean storm on Friday will likely not come close enough to bring steady snow to Southeastern New England. We haven’t totally slammed the door on a farther west track, but it’s pretty close to a done deal.

The weather will stay mild through the weekend into early February. We’re watching a system early next week that may bring either light rain or mixed precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. After that, it looks relatively mild into the midweek. A cold front passing through in the midweek will bring colder weather late in the workweek. However, the pattern still does not look entirely favorable for a snowy storm track in Southeastern New England. When storms develop, the storm track looks to be too far west for all snow in RI and SE MA through early February.

Long-Range Forecast – Jan 14After a few days of cold weather, it will all retreat as the next storm system approaches this weekend. Once again, we’ll see much more rain than snow in Southern New England. It’s the story of the winter so far, but that was the case last year through mid-January, too. Are we going to see a huge pattern flip like we saw in early 2015? Most likely not, but it should get more wintry than the paltry snow threats we’ve had so far this winter. A weak system could bring a bit of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. It will not be a huge deal, with an inch or two of accumulation possible in a worst-case scenario. Most of next workweek will be cold and dry, with the coldest and windy weather likely Monday through Tuesday. Highs will only be in the 20s. The setup is decent for a storm next weekend. It’s a long way out, but as you can see in the video, the computer model ensembles are in decent agreement. It’s way too early to say how big of an impact it would have, what the precipitation type would be, etc. Just keep it in the back of your mind that there could be a storm Sat-Sun. Looking farther down the road, the weather does not look extremely cold to end January and begin February. The southern branch of the jet stream stays active, but that hasn’t yield much snow so far this season. Unless the storm track gets locked in just offshore, this may end up being a more of a winter to forget than remember for snow-lovers. https://vimeo.com/151851345

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After a few days of cold weather, it will all retreat as the next storm system approaches this weekend. Once again, we’ll see much more rain than snow in Southern New England. It’s the story of the winter so far, but that was the case last year through mid-January, too. Are we going to see a huge pattern flip like we saw in early 2015? Most likely not, but it should get more wintry than the paltry snow threats we’ve had so far this winter.

A weak system could bring a bit of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. It will not be a huge deal, with an inch or two of accumulation possible in a worst-case scenario. Most of next workweek will be cold and dry, with the coldest and windy weather likely Monday through Tuesday. Highs will only be in the 20s.

The setup is decent for a storm next weekend. It’s a long way out, but as you can see in the video, the computer model ensembles are in decent agreement. It’s way too early to say how big of an impact it would have, what the precipitation type would be, etc. Just keep it in the back of your mind that there could be a storm Sat-Sun.

Looking farther down the road, the weather does not look extremely cold to end January and begin February. The southern branch of the jet stream stays active, but that hasn’t yield much snow so far this season. Unless the storm track gets locked in just offshore, this may end up being a more of a winter to forget than remember for snow-lovers.

Long-Range Forecast – January 4

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Monday was the first colder than normal day in the Providence area since December 1. The cold shot is sticking around into the midweek, with cold sunshine on Tuesday. Clear skies and light winds will have temperatures in the teens again Wednesday morning. Wednesday should warm into the upper 30s with sunshine and not much of a breeze.

The end of the workweek will be relatively mild and dry. Some stormy weather is possible between Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Right now, it does not look like more than rain showers. Another storm system is possible late in the weekend and/or early next week. Once again, it looks like more rain than snow.

From the middle of next week through January 20th has the potential for snowier events. It looks like there will be enough cold air in the Eastern US most of the time, but a couple of things need to come together if there is to be significant snow in that time frame in Southeastern New England. The storm track will likely be too far inland for snow this weekend and early next week. The storm track would have to shift farther south, but not so far south that the action goes from the Southeastern United States out to sea. For now, let’s call it a “high potential” pattern for snow. Whether its potential is realized, is another story.