Long-Range Forecast – July 24

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The pattern in the next two weeks may evolve to something slightly different from we have seen so far this summer, but it is unlikely to bring extreme heat to Southern New England. Next week will start with showers, but should improve by midweek. The air that moves in Tuesday and Wednesday will be relatively dry and comfortable. Highs will be seasonably cool, in the upper 70s to low 80s, and nights will be nice, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s – something we have enjoyed a lot this summer.

The potential change in the pattern during the first week of August would have the Bermuda high backing in from the east, and a boundary between warm/muggy and cool/dry weather setting up along the Eastern Seaboard. Unfortunately, showers like to form along those boundaries, and if it sets up, we’ll have to deal with occasional rain during that week. It’s certainly not set in stone, but it’s something to keep an eye on in the next week.

Lots of Saharan dust should limit any tropical development in the next week

Lots of Saharan dust should limit any tropical development in the next week

Long-Range Forecast – July 21

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There will be a brief warm-up in the middle of the week before a cold front threatens with showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday into early Friday. The weekend is shaping up to be seasonably warm with sunshine giving way to clouds late Sunday as the jet stream buckles again in the Eastern United States. Another shot of unseasonably cool weather is heading of the Great Lakes and Midwest next week, and the pattern will be unsettled along the East Coast.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible from at least the start to middle of next week as the trough slowly moves through the Northeast. It’s hard to say if any day will be a total washout, but, in a worst-case scenario there could be a few inches of rain in Southern New England during next workweek. Even after the system moves away, there will not be any big-time heat moving into the Northeast. There is not likely to be any big shift in the overall jet stream pattern through early August.

Long-Range Forecast – July 15

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The threat of locally heavy rain continues through late Wednesday as a front slowly eases through New England. The best chance of torrential downpours in RI and SE MA is from Tuesday night through mid-afternoon Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through that time.

After the storm system moves offshore, there should be a decent stretch Thursday into, and possibly through, the weekend. The latest information suggests that most of the showers along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday and Sunday will stay out of RI and SE MA. It may not be the sunniest weekend of the summer, but, at this point, it does not look bad with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s under partly cloudy skies.

The same general weather pattern will hold into the middle of next week. We’ll be watching the progression, or lack thereof, of a disturbance in the Eastern United States. This time of the year, a ridge may be able to hold on and keep Southern New England in typical mid-summer weather with some humidity. By late in the week, the shower threat increases, and it’s unlikely to stay completely dry through next weekend.

While the occasional very warm to hot day is possible, we are not expecting any extended 90°+ stretches through the next two weeks. To date, the highest temperature of the year in Providence is 91, and there have only been three 90° days – a far cry from last year.

We do not see the tropics becoming active in the next two weeks.

Long-Range Forecast – July 10

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The weather will stay quiet through the weekend in Southern New England before the action really picks up early next week. As we mentioned on Monday’s Long-Range Forecast, there will be an anomalously strong trough diving into the central United States early next week. Southern New England will be on the warm, humid, and unsettled end of that system. There is a widespread shower and thunderstorm threat from Sunday night through Wednesday midday. It will certainly not be raining the whole time, but lines of showers/storms will likely make multiple passes through Southern New England in those 60 hours. It will be very humid, and highs will be in the 80s inland if there is sunshine. Lows will be near 70. So, while not overly hot, you’ll probably be running the A/C.

The Storm Prediction Center is watching this stormy pattern for potentially severe weather. It cannot be ruled out – especially Tuesday and/or Wednesday. An early estimate is for more than an inch of rain for all of Southern New England, with the potential for 2-4″ and some flash flooding if this system lives up to its potential.

It looks like drier and seasonable weather will return late Wednesday or Thursday, and last into next weekend. The pattern does not look as unsettled in the following week, but more showers are possible from time to time as cold fronts approach from the west. It does not look like there will be too much, if any, extreme heat (mid 90s inland) in the next couple of weeks. Last July, there eight days in the mid to upper 90s before the 20th. This year, there may be none.

Long-Range Forecast – July 7

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So far, this summer is going about how we thought it would. The overriding theme of our summer forecast was for a “warm” summer with a lack of extreme heat. To date, the warmest it’s been at TF Green Airport is 90°. It may make it to 90° in the next couple of days, but it will not be much above 90. After that, there is little chance of 90° heat in the next 7-14 days. By comparison, there were 12 days over 92° by July 20 of last year.

The next few days will feature hazy, breezy, and humid weather. There is a t-storm threat, but it’s primarily inland – unless they happen at night, in which case the storms may hang on better near the coast. Showers/storms will likely be scattered, and some places may not see any rain this workweek.

Friday into the weekend looks pleasant, with lower humidity and highs in the low 80s. An approaching front will bring the chance of showers or storms in the mid to late weekend. It’s a little early to give exact timing on the front, but it looks like it will be between Saturday night and Sunday night.

Cool weather will arrive in the Upper Midwest in the next 7 days, and the boundary between the cool weather and warm/humid weather will not be far from Southern New England, and that could mean a few unsettled days early next week. Once again, with summertime rains, it’s tough to talk specifics so far away from the event, but, let’s just say showers are possible Mon-Wed. With cool weather to our west, it looks like we’ll be free from big-time heat through July 20.