Long-Range Forecast – October 30

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Sometimes the monthly summary is not an accurate snapshot of what the weather was like for that month. For instance, this October will go in the books with about 65% of the normal precipitation in the Providence area. However, 75% of the days were dry, and more than half the monthly rainfall happened with the strong storm that hit earlier this week. The monthly temperature average will be near normal, but there were some wild swings including a couple of days that were 13° below normal, and three days that were at least 11° warmer than normal.

Heading into November, the over-arching theme is for warmer than normal weather in Southeastern New England for the first half of the month. That’s not to say that there will not be an occasional cool day, but most of the time it will be warmer than normal. It also looks like the mainly dry pattern is going to stay with us for a while. The first week of the month may be completely dry.

It looks slightly more unsettled between Nov 7-11, then it’s probably back to more dry weather through the middle of the month. There is no sign of a sharp cool-down similar to what we saw in mid-October. Enjoy it while it lasts!

Long-Range Forecast – October 26

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The weather pattern has been fairly predictable for the past couple of weeks. Here’s hoping it stays that way through the winter! Rain is expected late Wednesday into early Thursday as a cold front combines with leftover rain from Patricia heading into the Northeast. It looks like the heaviest rain will be west of RI and SE MA, but the steadiest rain in the last few weeks is still likely, with RI getting at least 0.5″, and SE MA at least 0.25″. The potential exists for an inch or more if the storm tracks farther east than expected.

Dry weather is ahead for Halloween. It will be seasonable, and that means temperatures settling back through the 50s into the 40s by late in the evening. Sunday looks dry and milder – with a 4:40 PM sunset as we turn the clocks back Saturday night.

The pattern will be progressive next week, and that means we’ll see a chance of showers on Monday, but the storm will move on and we’ll be back to dry weather in the middle to late workweek. Another storm system may arrive for the first weekend of November. Temperature-wise it does not look like there will be anything terribly cold in the next two weeks. Precipitation should be a lot closer to normal than the past few weeks.

Long-Range Forecast – October 22

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A mainly dry pattern will continue through the middle of next week. The best chance of a few showers between now and then is 6am-12pm on Sunday, but it does not look like a soaking rain. It will be seasonable Monday through Wednesday.

A cold front moving through the northern states will scoop up some tropical moisture and bring rain sometime between next Wednesday night and early Friday morning. At this point, it looks like a good bet for at least a half-inch of much-needed rain. Upwards of an inch is not out of the question.

The early outlook for Halloween is for dry and not too cold conditions. The weather pattern, however, will likely be getting more active in early November. Rain is possible late next weekend or early the following week.

Overall, there is no very cold weather in the forecast for the next couple of weeks. Just a couple of cool shots after fronts pass early Friday into Saturday, early next week, and late next workweek.

 

Long-Range Forecast – October 20

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A nice midweek warm-up is following the coldest weather of the season so far. It will stay relatively mild through Thursday. A few showers are possible Thursday late-afternoon and evening as a cold front passes.

Highs will be in the mid 50s Friday and Saturday, with a gusty breeze likely Friday. The growing season ended during the cold snap, so the potential for frost Saturday morning is no big deal. It will be a bit milder on Sunday, but scattered showers are possible.

The weather looks quiet and seasonably cool into the middle of next week. The next best shot at steady rain is late next workweek – Thursday and/or Friday. Early projections show the potential for 0.5″ or more of rain in that timeframe.

The early, early outlook for Halloween is for dry weather, but that could be subject to when the storm develops late next workweek. If it gets pushed back 24 hours or so, then rain could linger into Saturday.

It does not look like there is any weather as cold as what hit earlier this week in the forecast for the next couple of weeks.

Long-Range Forecast – October 11

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Columbus Day will be mostly sunny, breezy, and warm in Southeastern New England. Highs will be around 10° above normal for mid-October. It will stay relatively mild on Tuesday in spite of more clouds and possibly a few stray showers. Cooler weather arrives through the midweek.

A cold shot is possible next weekend. It may be preceded by showers on Friday. If the core of the cold weather reaches Southern New England, then there could be sub-freezing low temperatures inland next weekend. It’s still unclear if it will be a glancing blow or the full brunt of the cool air. In any event, you expect it to be cooler than normal next weekend.

The cold weather will likely not stay around for too long. A surge of milder air will arrive in the early to middle part of next week. Showers are possible late in the week. Overall, the pattern looks mainly dry for the next two weeks.