Archive for month: March, 2015

January through March will be the coldest on record in Providence by quite a bit, possibly as much as 1.5° over some years from the early-1900s. That is incredibly impressive considering the amount of urbanization that has happened since then. The overnight low temperatures are typically not as cold now as they used to be. It sure helped to have a deep snowpack for the past couple of months.

Looking ahead to early April, we’re getting into “freak” territory for any plowable snowstorms. There have only been eight Aprils in the last 110 years with more than 5″ of snow in the Providence area. The average for the month is 1.3″. In most years, there is a trace or less of snow for the entire month. Our first shot at snow comes just after midnight on April Fools’ Day. It looks like a storm will be just far enough south to not bring a minor snow accumulation to Southern New England. After that storm passes by, there will be a brief warm-up late in the workweek. Some rain is likely Friday into Saturday. Easter Sunday looks dry and cool.

The overall pattern should be pretty active for, at least, the first couple of weeks of April. While snow is not likely, it’s not out of the question, either. The ground is very soft in Southeastern New England, and an above-normal month of rain could wreak havoc with school sports, baseball, lacrosse, and soccer leagues, and anyone wanting to get out on the golf course.

It does not look like there will be an extended warm-up anytime soon. There is a good chance that April is the fourth straight colder than normal month, but it does not look as cold (relative to normal) as the past three months.

Barring an unforeseen warm-up, this is 2015 will have the coldest January-March stretch on record in the Providence area. This month is running nearly 6° colder than normal, and there is no sign of a warm-up in the next couple of weeks. It will be considerably colder than normal from Sunday through Tuesday, and only near normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold shot arrives late next week and likely lasts through next weekend.

Precipitation-wise, there will be some light snow Friday afternoon and night before drier weather settles in on Saturday and lasts through the middle of next week. The milder weather Wednesday into Thursday comes with the threat of showers on Thursday as a cold front approaches. Looking further down the road, it is a “high potential” pattern in the end of March and early April. It will be unseasonably cold, and there should be some stormy weather near the Eastern Seaboard. It’s uncertain if that will translate to near-misses or storms that threaten with snow, mix, and rain well into the start of spring.

March is running 6.6° colder than normal in Providence, and that includes the recent mild stretch. There is more relatively cold weather ahead, and it’s likely that by the end of the month, January-March will be one of the coldest (relative to normal) three-month stretches on record in Southeastern New England. Of course, as we get closer to spring, the cold snaps do not have the bite that they did in February. A normal high of 50° is only 10 days away.

After a relatively cool and quiet end to the workweek, a storm system this weekend will bring mainly rain. A few flakes or ice pellets are possible at the beginning of the storm on Saturday morning, but it will change to rain and the temperature should reach 40°. There will be a period of steady rain, but widespread flooding is not expected. The storm will move away on Sunday, and rain showers may change to snow showers during the day, but there is unlikely to be any accumulation because of the high sun angle and temperature near or slightly below freezing. Snow could accumulate if it starts before dawn or ends after sunset, but, right now that’s not expected.

The weather will be quiet again early next week before a cold front brings rain and snow showers early Tuesday morning. It will be chilly behind that front, and dry/cool weather is likely for most of next workweek. Looking ahead to next weekend and beyond, the pattern should yield some precipitation threats with a storm track most likely south of Southern New England. Spring begins next Friday, and there will probably be some snow after it begins. A lot of people have asked me “is it (winter) over?”, and the short answer is no. We may not get another blockbuster or even plowable snow, but there will be talk of snow after March 20.