Long-Range Forecast – January 29

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Hopefully, if you were following the Long-Range Forecast for the past couple of weeks, this cold and active weather pattern did not come out of nowhere for you. It looks like it will be staying cold, and somewhat active, into mid-February.

There is the dynamic system on Friday that will likely blow up just a little too far east to spare Southern New England a mini-blizzard Friday night into Saturday. There could be some icy roads and the wind will be howling as the temperature plummets. After a very cold weekend, a southern streamer makes a run at us on Monday. Indications are it will come close enough for some snow, but it’s still unclear if it’s an inch or two, or 5-10″. If this storm travels far enough north, significant accumulating snow is likely. It’ll be a fast mover, but it will run into very cold air, and the snow would pile up. We’ll keep you posted in the next few days.

Further down the road, there could be another system late next workweek, and then again in the early to middle part of the following week. Between any storms, it will be plenty cold. The month of February is shaping up to be colder than normal, and after a very cold January, the winter as a whole may be below normal. Who’d thunk it after the very mild December. It’s also likely to feature above normal snow, something that did not look promising when looking at just the totals to date a couple of weeks ago.

Long-Range Forecast – January 22

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We see no reason to change our view that there will be many chances for snow in the next two to three weeks in Southeastern New England. It remains to be seen if it will become the kind of hyper-active pattern that we’ve seen in February and/or March for the past couple of years, but it looks a lot more like winter than the pattern we saw for December and part of January. Not every storm (see Saturday) is going to deliver on its full potential for snow, but, for snow-lovers (of which there are many and they tend to make the most noise) at least we are talking about the possibility of snow where that was not even discussed in most of December and early January.

The pattern has a high potential for storminess, but it is more of a lock for cold weather. There is not much doubt that there will be ample cold air around, and possibly some extremely frigid outbreaks in the next two to three weeks. That’s not great news for our heating bills, but, at least the cost of oil is lower than in many recent winters.

Specifically, we’re watching a storm threat early next week. It would be all snow, but it’s unclear if the system will pass to far south and east to bring accumulating snow or if there will be several inches of fluff. The timing is Monday into Monday night. There will probably be a dry and very cold midweek. Further down the road, the northern branch of the jet stream will probably be active, and if some of the energy phases with the southern branch, then potentially big East Coast storms could be on the table. As stated earlier, it’s not a lock, but it’s not like it was earlier in the winter when we were saying there’s no chance of it happening.

A long video below with lots of interesting graphics!

Computer Model Trends: Weekend Storm Likely

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We have been banging the “cold and potentially active” drum for a while regarding the weather for late January and early February. There is little doubt that a cold pattern is developing for most of the country, and it seems that there will be a storm that hits instead of nearly missing this weekend. It may not satisfy the snow-lovers in Southeastern New England as the setup and track suggests some mixing from the coast to I-95, but inland stands to get hit pretty hard based on the latest guidance.

There are a few important concerns about the storm. First, there is not a lot of very cold air to the north of the storm, and if it tracks close to Nantucket, there will likely be enough warm air drawn into the storm for a mix and dry slot to reach the coast and probably I-95. Conversely, the lack of cold air to the north makes a weaker baroclinic zone in the zone. The upshot of this is you don’t have a stark contrast between the warm/cold air, and the moderate to heavy precipitation may not extend as far from the center as it can with late-January storms in the Atlantic Ocean.

At this point, we’re expecting a relatively quick-hitting significant storm on Saturday. It will probably not last more than 12 hours, but the precipitation may be heavy at times Saturday afternoon and early evening. The best chance of several inches of snow is from I-95 to Worcester County, with some snow, a wintry mix, and maybe even rain southeast of I-95. It’s too early to say that there will not be 6″+ of snow from Providence to Boston, but the latest information suggests that axis could be a little farther inland.

NAM model with deepest snow in interior Southern New England and souther NH, VT, ME

NAM model with deepest snow in interior Southern New England and souther NH, VT, ME

NAM model has a dry slot at the coast as the storm nears Saturday afternoon

NAM model has a dry slot at the coast as the storm nears Saturday afternoon

NAM snow accumulation map shows deeper "snow", but it may count mixed precipitation as snow

NAM snow accumulation map shows deeper “snow”, but it may count mixed precipitation as snow

JMA model with a lot of moisture from the storm. Difficult to decipher track/type, but the model has a significant precip. event for SNE

JMA model with a lot of moisture from the storm. Difficult to decipher track/type, but the model has a significant precip. event for SNE

New NOAA GFS model is by far the farthest offshore with this storm. It would be a non-event inland and a light moderate snowstorm near the coast. We think this model is too far south, east and weak.

New NOAA GFS model is by far the farthest offshore with this storm. It would be a non-event inland and a light moderate snowstorm near the coast. We think this model is too far south, east and weak.

GFS snow forecast

GFS snow forecast

GEFS members with pretty good agreement on some impact this weekend

GEFS members with pretty good agreement on some impact this weekend

ECMWF snow forecast is bullish on a big snowstorm for most of SNE away from the coast. Notice how it's a relatively narrow strip of mod/heavy snow

ECMWF snow forecast is bullish on a big snowstorm for most of SNE away from the coast. Notice how it’s a relatively narrow strip of mod/heavy snow

ECMWF has the storm pretty wound up on Saturday afternoon/evening

ECMWF has the storm pretty wound up on Saturday afternoon/evening

CMC (Canadian) model looks to us like the best solution at this point. A moderate to high impact snowstorm inland, with rain on Cape Cod, and a mix in the I-95 corridor

CMC (Canadian) model looks to us like the best solution at this point. A moderate to high impact snowstorm inland, with rain on Cape Cod, and a mix in the I-95 corridor

CMC model is a little to close to ACK (Nantucket) for a big I-95 snowstorm

CMC model is a little to close to ACK (Nantucket) for a big I-95 snowstorm

The CFSv2 model has been consistent in a VERY COLD stretch of weather in the next 45 days in the Northeast. If this is accurate, it will be memorable.

The CFSv2 model has been consistent in a VERY COLD stretch of weather in the next 45 days in the Northeast. If this is accurate, it will be memorable.

Long-Range Forecast – January 20

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The recent mild stretch has not been enough to push the January monthly temperature back to normal in Southeastern New England. The temperature is still running a couple of degrees below normal, and the rest of the month does not look particularly warm. So far this winter, the trend has been for cold dry stretches with the warmth coming when storms arrive as they track over or west of New England. As a result, there has been above normal precipitation, but well below normal snowfall. The storm track will likely be shifting to a more typical mid-winter setup in the next couple of weeks.

The first significant storm in this new pattern is likely to happen in the middle of this weekend. This looks like a transition storm, as it will not be as warm as some of the earlier storms this winter, but there will not be a ton of cold air around to allow for an all-snow event in all of Southern New England. Right now, it looks like the best chance of snow is in NW RI and Worcester County, with a mix in the I-95 corridor, and mainly rain near the coast. The storm is still nearly five days away, and plenty can change with the track, but the model agreement is decent, and we’re fairly confident in a storm that comes close enough for moderate precipitation.

That storm may be followed by a second, colder system early next week. While confidence is lower in a 7-8 day forecast, there are signs that a storm will form off the Eastern Seaboard Monday-Tuesday. There should be enough cold air around for snow, but there is uncertainty about how close to the coast the storm will form. It’s possible that it develops too far out to sea for a major impact. The bottom-line is that there is more snow potential in the next couple of weeks than we’ve seen so far this winter. In a way, it reminds me of two years ago when most of January was very quiet before we got hit hard in February and March. The monthly outlook for February is cold, and it may be premature to write this off as a snow-free winter in Southeastern New England.

Long-Range Forecast – January 15

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Flurries, snow showers, and freezing drizzle provided a little weather excitement (and headaches) on Thursday, but it certainly was not the big snow event that snow-lovers in Southern New England are yearning for. At the midway point of the winter, there has only been about 6″ of snow in the Providence area. However, the pattern for the first half of January has been cold, and there are strong indications that it will stay that way for the last ten days of the month. The big difference will be the storm track shifts south of Southern New England.

So far this winter, we have gone from cold/dry stretches to brief warm-ups when the storms track over or west of Southern New England. It was a wet December and after Sunday’s storm we’ll likely be on track for at least near normal precipitation in January. But, of course, there is a big lack of snow. For it to get snowy, the storm track needs to shift to south of Southern New England, giving a chance for northeast winds to lock in the cold air. So, if the storm track is shifting south, then you must think it’s going to get snowy, but that is not always the case. If the track is too far south, and the trough at 500mb positively tilted, then the storms are likely to miss Southern New England to the south as they head out to sea. While that looks like the case for most of next week, I think there is a decent chance that we’ll get into a snowier pattern in late January and early February. The longer range models are occasionally showing storms that have a wintry look in the Northeastern United States in the 10-15 day timeframe. That has not been the case for most of the winter.

Long-Range Forecast – January 13

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We are close to the midway point of meteorological winter, and the snow-lovers in Southern New England have a lot to moan and groan about. There have only been 5.6″ of snow in the Providence area since November. That’s only 40% of normal, and that number will shrink in the coming days with no chance of accumulating snow into the weekend. The last time there was less than 20″ of snow in a winter in the Providence area was 2011-2012, when there was 17.8″. There was 15.1″ in 2006-2007. The all-time low was 1979-80 when there was only 9.7″ for the winter. While it only takes one storm to change the snow fortunes from “historically low” to just “lower than normal”, this winter has been a dud so far.

So, is there any chance of that big snowstorm in the next couple of weeks? The pattern does not look extremely promising for that to happen, but it will likely not be a completely boring pattern, either. It will probably not be as cold as the first two weeks of the month, but I don’t expect a blowtorch pattern to develop in the Northeast. The first shot at precipitation is on Sunday into Monday, and it looks like rain. If current trends are correct, it will be soggy for the AFC Championship game Sunday evening in Foxboro.

Computer models are trending toward a rain storm late in the weekend

Computer models are trending toward a rain storm late in the weekend

Looking ahead to next week, there will likely be another cold area of high pressure (fair weather) early in the week, followed by a frontal system that could bring rain/snow showers in the mid workweek. Later in the week, a bigger system may move out of the Southeast and head for the Northeast. It does not look like it would be an exclusively snow event, but that’s no surprise given the prevailing storm track this weekend. The 12-16 day timeframe continues to look fairly active, and seasonably cold, so that means there is at least a chance of some snow in that period.

2015-01-13-Headlines

Long-Range Forecast – January 5

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The coldest weather since early last January is heading for Southern New England this week. The temperature will flirt with zero on Thursday morning, and wind chills will be -10 to -20. For the most part, the cold weather will not be accompanied by snow. Flurries and snow showers are possible on Tuesday, but it will not amount to more than a coating – at worst. Another clipper may bring up to 2″ of snow on Friday, but that does not look like a huge deal, either. In the early to middle part of next week there could be a system that comes out of the Southern states carrying more moisture, but it’s unclear how far north it will get, and, right now, it looks like it will mainly stay south of Southern New England.

The overall trend through the middle of the month is for cold and dry weather to persist in Southern New England. There may be snow on the ground, but it will likely not be deep, with no big storms ahead for the next week. With cold air around, the snow outlook can change quickly if a storm gets cranking, so, we’re hesitant to say that there definitely will not be a moderate or major storm between January 12-19, but, right now, it does not look too promising for a big one. A week or two ago we said we were leery of the cold/dry to warm/wet pattern this winter, and, so far, that has been the case. It was a cold end to 2014 and cool start to the New Year, but when the storm arrived it brought 1″+ of precipitation and only 1-2″ of snow.

See the headlines and video below.

Long-Range Forecast – January 1

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2014 is in the books as 0.7 degrees cooler than normal in the Providence area. The first few days of 2015 will follow suit with colder than normal weather into the weekend, but a storm arriving Saturday night will be mainly rain with a surge of milder air likely on Sunday. The warmth will not stay for long, and by Monday the highs will be back to the upper 30s – not far from normal. It will be seasonably cold with the chance of light snow or flurries in the midweek as an Alberta Clipper passes by. The best chance of snow is Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

After the Clipper departs, there will be an Arctic blast that brings the coldest weather of the season so far, and possibly the coldest we’ll see all winter. If the full brunt of the Arctic air hits Southern New England, the temperature may nosedive to zero in some spots Thursday or Friday morning. Highs may not make it out of the teens. It will be dry into next weekend.

Overall, January looks like a chilly and active month of weather. It may not be as cold after January 10, but the storm track looks pretty active, so snow chances exist through mid-month. We’re still somewhat concerned about a dry/cold to wet/mild pattern like we’ll see with this weekend’s storm, but the overall storm track looks a little further south (colder) after the big Arctic outbreak at the end of next week.

  • Temperature: Below normal next two weeks
  • Precipitation: Near normal next two weeks
  • Snow: Below normal next two weeks
The temperature spikes with the weekend storm, but it's back to the ice box next week

The temperature spikes with the weekend storm, but it’s back to the ice box next week

The EPS ensembles do not have a lot of snow in the next ten days. Notice how there is pretty good agreement on a minor system in the middle of next week

The EPS ensembles do not have a lot of snow in the next ten days. Notice how there is pretty good agreement on a minor system in the middle of next week

EPS agreement on big cold shot late next week

EPS agreement on big cold shot mid to late next week

Days 10-15 look a lot milder on the EPS. Not sure if it will be extremely mild, and there should be a fairly active storm track in the middle of the month

Days 10-15 look a lot milder on the EPS. Not sure if it will be extremely mild, and there should be a fairly active storm track in the middle of the month

GFS also showing a slight warm-up in days 10-15

GFS also showing a slight warm-up in days 10-15

CFS v2 has a cool to cold January for most of the country

CFS v2 has a cool to cold January for most of the country

CFS v2 is also stormy with above normal precipitation in January

CFS v2 is also stormy with above normal precipitation in January