Long-Range Forecast – December 29

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Even with a seasonable end to the month, December 2015 will be the warmest winter month on record by a large margin in Southeastern New England. In fact, it could be argued that this month is the most extreme on record temperature-wise. It will be around 5.5° warmer than the old record set in 2006 (40.6°). To put that in perspective, there is not another record monthly temperature more than 2.2° (warm or cold) from the second most extreme month since 1905. After 110 years of record keeping, when a monthly temperature record is broken, it’s usually by less than a degree, not more than 5°!

Looking ahead to early January, there will be some chilly weather around this weekend into early next week. A few flurries are possible, but most of the time it will be dry. The coldest day will most likely be Monday, with highs in the 20s. The temperature will moderate to the 40s during the day in the middle of next week. A cold front may bring rain showers in the mid to late workweek. It will be followed by more seasonably cold weather for next weekend.

It will likely become stormier by mid-January, with some East Coast snow threats possible after Jan 8-10. Looking at the pattern after mid-January, it does not seem particularly dry, but in an El Niño year, many of the storms will likely have multiple precipitation types – like the one that just hit us.

 

2015-16 Southeastern New England Winter Outlook

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The second half of winter was one for the record books. I, for one, hope that we never see another month like February 2015 in Southeastern New England. The snow was remarkable, and the cold was unbearable. Here we are on the cusp of another winter, and, just like last year, there is no sign of winter-like weather at the start of the season. The first two to three weeks of December are likely to be much warmer than normal, and possibly snow-free, in Southeastern New England. You may remember similar weather last December, when the temperature was a few degrees warmer than normal, and there was less than an inch of snow in the Providence area. There were some wild temperature swings in the first three-plus weeks of January, but not much snow. Then, late in the month, all hell broke loose, and we know what happened in February and March.

I see this winter following a similar pattern as far as the winter being back-loaded with the lion’s share of cold and snow after mid-January. As for it turning brutally cold like last winter, I don’t expect a repeat performance, but I expect the winter to trend colder, and February/March may be colder than normal. This may come as a surprise to some, but the last two winters have both been colder than normal in Southeastern New England. I expect this winter to be milder than both of those, but not extremely warm. By March 1, I think the temperature will average pretty close to normal over the previous three months.

An El Niño usually brings an active storm track to the Southern United States, and we are already seeing evidence of that. A relatively dry fall will transition to a wetter than normal winter in Southeastern New England. In December, while it’s wet, it will likely not be very white. Think of last winter which saw 150% of the normal precipitation, but little snow. I don’t think this December will be <em>that wet, </em>but there should be at least the normal amount of precipitation.

Snow-fall wise, it’s a tough forecast. Because the pattern will be stormy, there will be many chances for snow, but the storm track, at least in December, is not favorable for snow. That track should shift farther east, and I expect near to above normal snow – closer to the winter of 2013-14 than last winter. Check out the video for more!

Of course, dating back to my days at ABC6, I offer a couple of “shot in the dark” forecasts for a white Christmas and a big snowstorm totaling more than 12″ in Providence. This year, I don’t see a white Christmas for Southeastern New England. However, with such an active storm track, I think there’s a better than normal chance of getting a storm that produces at least a foot of snow. We’ll vote yes for that, and I look forward to whatever weather heads our way in the next few months!