Long-Range Forecast – September 26

/0 Comments/in , /by

Through September 24, September 2015 is the third warmest in the Providence area since 1932. It will be seasonable this weekend before another slight warm-up early next week. With 1.11″ of rain, it currently sits as the 12th driest since 1905. Dry Septembers are not a stranger – last year was the 2nd driest on record. There will be a few showers in the early to middle part of next week, but likely not the soaking rain we could use.

This pattern is interesting because it can be feast or famine. While the Northeast is very dry, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast has a stuck storm system bringing inches of rain. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that a slow-moving storm system develops along the East Coast and brings steady rain late next week or early the following week, but, right now, that seems unlikely. Looking further down the road, the pattern does not look as “stuck”, and we’ll likely see rain chances every few days through mid-October.

Long-Range Forecast – September 22

/0 Comments/in , /by

September 2015 is looking a lot like September 2014 in Southeastern New England. You may not remember it, but last September was very dry, with just 19% of the normal rainfall in Providence. It was also warmer than normal, but not as toasty as this September. If we don’t seen any measurable rain for the rest of this month, which is a distinct possibility, then there will be 28% of the normal precipitation for the month in Providence.

A northeast breeze will keep the temperature close to normal through the end of the workweek. A storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast may drift far enough north to bring mostly cloudy skies at times this weekend and early next week. At this point, it looks unlikely that the storm will come close enough for steady rain in RI and/or SE MA between Sunday and Tuesday. If the storm stays out to sea, as expect, then the dry pattern which began on September 14 may last through the end of the month. There are signs, however, that the pattern will get more active by mid-October. See the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – September 18

/0 Comments/in , /by

So far this month, there has only been one cooler than normal day in the Providence area, and that was by just one degree. The month is running a whopping 5° warmer than normal. It’s the warmest first 18 days of September since 1983, and fourth warmest since 1932. It will stay warm on Saturday before cooler weather filters in Sunday into Monday. The temperature may actually be slightly below normal early next week, but it won’t last for long. Another surge of mild to warm air arrives in the middle to end of the workweek.

This is a tricky precipitation pattern to forecast. We are leaning toward it being mainly dry for the next couple of weeks. There will be a lot of stormy area from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico through Florida to off the Southeastern United States coast. If an organized storm, possibly sub-tropical in nature, drifts north, then we’d get a good soaking. Right now, it looks like most of the action will stay off the Northeast coast, with high pressure from Eastern Canada keeping the wet weather at sea. That’s not great news since the area has a precipitation deficit for the year.

 

Long-Range Forecast – September 15

/0 Comments/in , /by

This week will be one of the nicest of the year in Southeastern New England. We are enjoying warm afternoons and comfortable nights, with low humidity and clear skies. The great weather will last into the weekend. A cold front will pass on Sunday, but there will likely not be much, if any, rain with it. Look for a cool-down early next week before it warms up again in the midweek. We’ll be keeping an eye on any unsettled weather off the Southeast or Carolina coasts, but it looks like high pressure over the Northeast will be strong enough to keep it at bay (or sea).

September will go in the books with well above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation (for most of the area). There are some spots that picked up heavy rain with last week’s thunderstorms, but they were not widespread enough to cover all RI and SE MA.

Long-Range Forecast – September 11

/0 Comments/in , /by

The 97° high temperature in Providence on Wednesday was the hottest September day since 1980, and third hottest since 1937. The heat wave between Monday and Wednesday was the hottest three-day stretch in September since 1983. Since then, we have been cooled by moderate to heavy rain Thursday and Thursday night. The weather will be pleasant to start the weekend, with above normal high temperatures on Saturday. Scattered showers are possible on Sunday, but it does not look like a washout. It will be near or a bit cooler than normal Sunday into Monday, with clouds lingering on Monday.

The weather pattern looks warm and dry in the middle to end of next week. Highs will reach the 80s inland by midweek, and may top out in the mid 80s Thursday or Friday. That’s a solid 10° warmer than normal for mid-September. There may be some late-workweek showers as a cold front passes, but I would not count on much rain. A relatively warm pattern continues into the last 10 days of September, and it does not look very wet through most of the period from Sep 20-25. Check out the video for more details.

Long-Range Forecast – September 7

/0 Comments/in , /by

September is cooking so far in Southeastern New England. The temperature is running more than 4° warmer than normal in the Providence area. It hit 90° at TF Green on Monday afternoon. Another 90° day is likely on Tuesday. The humidity is sticking around, too. Lows will be about 10° warmer than normal through the middle of the week. Wednesday afternoon may not be as hot with more of a southerly component to the wind, but it will still be much warmer than normal for September.

Cooler weather finally arrives late in the workweek. With it will come showers and thunderstorms Thursday and/or Friday. The best chance of rain is from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. There is a good possibility of a decent soaking – at least for some of Southeastern New England as low pressure that is near Florida today is drawn north by the approaching cold front.

The early outlook for the weekend is for better weather on Saturday than Sunday. Both days look seasonable with highs in the 70s. Sunday does not look like a washout, but we’ll keep an eye on a similar setup to Friday, with a storm possibly developing along a front. The early to middle part of next week looks dry and seasonable. Showers are possible late next week. Overall, the relatively warm September will continue, just not to the degree that we’re seeing now. Check out the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – September 3

/0 Comments/in , /by

September is off to a hot start in Southeastern New England. It will turn briefly cooler Friday into the weekend before much warmer than normal weather returns for the end of the Labor Day weekend and next week. A couple of 90° days are possible in the middle of the week.

If you’re looking or an extended cool-down or fall preview in the next two weeks, I think you’re out of luck. The pattern will stay mostly warmer than normal through mid-September. We are in a mainly dry pattern for the past two weeks, and although there will be a shower threat in the mid to late workweek, and possibly some rain next weekend, most of the next two weeks look dry.

The tropics are quiet, aside from Tropical Storm Fred which way out to the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and not heading west. Looking ahead into fall, the period of Sep-Nov will most likely be warmer than normal in Southeastern New England. It will be buoyed by what is shaping up to be a very warm September. We do not expect October and November to be as warm – relative to normal. It will likely get wetter in October and November as the jet stream strengthens and El Niño begins to assert itself.