Long-Range Forecast – June 9

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It’s been a fairly typical start to June in Southern New England. We have not seen any extreme heat, and we don’t expect there to be much, if any, of it in the next couple of weeks. The overall pattern is somewhat unsettled along the Eastern Seaboard, and that’s something we’ll be dealing with in the form of scattered showers on Tuesday, Thursday night, Friday, and possibly Saturday morning of this week. High pressure and fair weather will set up shop from midday Saturday into early next week, but another front will threaten with showers by midweek.

The middle of next week looks warm, but not above 90°, and somewhat muggy. If the front stalls to our west, then the warm/humid weather could be prolonged a day or two. We’re also keeping our eye on the Gulf of Mexico and warm water off the Southeastern United States coast. Conditions may be favorable for a storm – tropical or otherwise, to form late next week. There are some models that bring a rainstorm around the weekend of June 21-22.

2014 Summer and Tropical Season Outlook

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The Right Weather Spring Outlook turned out to be pretty accurate. The overall weather pattern has not changed too much in the last few months, and we were right about the spring gradually getting warmer (relative to normal) and May breaking the streak of six consecutive colder than normal months in Southeastern New England. We also called for near-normal precipitation, and TF Green Airport was only 8% above normal for the season. Now, as we head into June, it’s time to turn our attention to meteorological summer (June, July, August) and the Atlantic Hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30.

Last year’s hurricane outlook was a disaster for most forecasting outlets. It was an uneventful year after most forecasters predicted an above normal season. This year, assuming an El Niño continues to develop, the forecast could be easier. Typically, there is below normal activity in the Atlantic Basin during an El Niño. Of the last ten El Niños, there was only one year (2004) with above normal hurricane activity. As you can see in the video, we are not expecting this to be a particularly active year. However, that does not prevent Southern New England from being hit by a storm. The last hurricane to make landfall in Southern New England was Bob in 1991 – an El Niño year.

It does not look like the overall weather pattern will change much in the first half of June, and possibly longer. We are not expecting any extended searing heat for most or all of June. It’s possible the pattern could shift in July and/or August, but we do not expect as many 90° days as last year (13) in the Providence area this summer. Having said that, we think the average temperature will be slightly above normal.

Rainfall-wise, There will be several shots at steady rain in the first half of June, so the start of the summer may be wetter than normal. We expect the entire summer to feature near-normal rainfall. It’s always a tricky forecast because of the hit and miss nature of summer thunderstorms. See the video for more on our outlook.

Long-Range Forecast – June 2

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The past couple of days have been near-perfect in Southeastern New England. I, for one, would take this type of weather all summer. Lows in the 40s, highs in the 70s to low 80s – tough to beat! Looking ahead at the next couple of weeks, there is not going to be a lot of extreme temperatures. This is certainly one year where it’s tough to justly say that there was no spring in Southern New England.

Midweek showers should give way to a large area of high pressure and dry weather from Friday through the weekend. It will be a pleasant airmass, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s Friday through Sunday. We’ll get to the “back side” of the high on Monday, and the wind will come around to the southwest drawing in muggier air ahead of a cold front. Right now, it looks like showers will hold off until late Monday, at the earliest. The theme of midweek showers will continue next week, although, it looks like the action will come on Tuesday, instead of Wed/Thu.

There should be another area of high pressure that moves in late next workweek. Dry and seasonable conditions are likely. A couple of fronts will move into the Northeast around the Father’s Day weekend. This far out, there’s no way to pin down when showers will threaten, but it may not stay dry through the weekend.

The forecast is for near to slightly above normal temperatures and rainfall in the next two weeks.
2014-06-02-headlines