Long-Range Forecast – August 31

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15 of the last 16 days of August were warmer than normal in the Providence area. The temperature hit 90° six times during the month. The average temperature was 2.6° warmer than normal. There was 77% of the normal precipitation at TF Green, but that number varies throughout Southern New England due to the localized nature of the thunderstorms this month.

We will roll into September with more summer-like weather through the middle of the week. A brief cool-down to near normal conditions is likely Friday into early Saturday before it starts to heat back up Sunday into Labor Day. Highs in the 90s are possible on Monday. Aside from a passing shower or thunderstorm late Thursday, there is not much of a rain threat in the next week.

While the first week of September will be much warmer than normal, it looks like the middle of the month will be closer to normal in terms of both temperature and precipitation. The pattern will get more active, and cold fronts will bring rain threats every three days or so. Hurricane season peaks in the next week. Other than Hurricane Fred, which is a threat only to the Eastern Atlantic Ocean islands, there is not much going on in the tropics. Check out the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – August 28

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Friday morning was the coolest in the Providence area in more than two weeks. The temperature fell into the 50s at TF Green for the first time since August 10. The comfortably cool weather will not last for too long as another surge of warmth arrives this weekend and continues well into next week. It will not be humid again for a few days, but the muggy weather will build during next week.

The temperature will be running well above normal at the start of September. 90° heat is possible in the middle of next week. That’s not what kids and teachers are hoping to hear as they head back to school. It will be dry through at least Monday, and possibly through all of next workweek. Scattered showers thunderstorms are possible between Tuesday and Thursday, but it does not look like widespread rain.

Tropical Storm Erika will likely be near Florida early next week, and could meander near the Southeast for several days. Eventually, some of the moisture from the storm may be drawn north. It’s tough to know how exactly how that will play out, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on it. Looking at the big picture, September is shaping up to be a rather warm month in the Eastern US.

Long-Range Forecast – August 24

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August continues to trend warmer than normal in Southeastern New England. High temperatures during this humid stretch have not been too far above normal, but the low temperatures have been 6-10° warmer than normal. Through Monday, the month is running about 2° warmer than normal in the Providence area. Showers were limited over the weekend, and it looks like August will be a drier than normal month in Southeastern New England.

The humidity will finally break on Wednesday as a cold front moves offshore. We are expecting delightful weather late in the workweek. Highs will be near 80 with partly to mostly sunny skies. It will get warmer this weekend. Right now, Saturday looks like the nicer of the two days. Sunday may feature more clouds as very warm weather advances into the Eastern United States.

An early-September heat wave is not out of the question next week. A big ridge in the jet stream will set up shop over the Eastern United States, and that will pump the heat into the Northeast. There should be at least one 90° day in Southeastern New England, and if it comes together just right, there may be several.

We’ll also look for more action in the tropics. Danny fizzled, but another wave may develop in its wake. It’ll be no threat to land for a while.

Long-Range Forecast – August 20

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Humidity will stay high into next week, and there is a general shower and thunderstorm threat that will also continue for several day. This unsettled pattern comes after a mainly dry stretch since August 11. By the end of the month, precipitation totals are likely to be pretty close to normal in the Providence area. The average temperature for the month will likely be the warmest (relative to normal) of the summer. So far, the temperature in Providence is running 1.6° above normal. It will likely be even further above normal by month’s end. June was a hair below normal, and July was 1° above normal.

A slow-moving system will deliver scattered showers and thunderstorms between Friday and Monday. It will not be raining the whole time, but there could be some heavy downpours because of the copious moisture over Southeastern New England. Highs will only be in the upper 70s to low 80s – not too far from normal. Lows, however, will be close to 70° – around 10° warmer than normal. Keep your eyes to the sky and on the radar this weekend if you have outdoor plans.

We’ll be watching an offshore storm this weekend. It may become a sub-tropical storm, but should stay far enough away that it only brings some rough surf to area beaches. If it manages to swing the wind around to the northeast, that will help to lower the humidity a bit, but it won’t be exactly dry, either.

An ocean storm will likely stay far enough away that it does not have a big impact in SNE early next week

An ocean storm will likely stay far enough away that it does not have a big impact in SNE early next week

The humidity will finally break in the middle of next week when the wind shifts to the west. That will likely happen on Wednesday. We’re looking at a dry and warm stretch to end August and start September. Looking at the pattern, more 90° heat is not out of the question. See the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – August 17

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Boston and Providence both reached 90° for a third straight day on Monday. It is the first heat wave in both cities since July, 2013. The temperature will flirt with 90° again on Tuesday. It will feel warmer because of the humidity. After a cool stretch in the second week of August, the month is now running nearly a degree warmer than normal. A wind shift from Wednesday through late in the week will bring cooler weather during the day, but it will stay mild and muggy at night. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s through late in the week.

It will stay dry through Thursday before a slow-moving disturbance brings a shower and thunderstorm threat Friday into the weekend. The best chance of rain is Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. A few showers are possible on Sunday. It looks dry. but muggy Monday and Tuesday. Another front will bring a shower threat in the middle of next week. The humidity may break temporarily late next workweek. The outlook for the last few days of August is for warmer than normal weather in the Northeast.

Long-Range Forecast – August 14

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After a brief cool-down, warmer weather is returning to Southern New England. Humidity is low for now, but it will be rising this weekend into early next week. Highs will be in the 80s on Friday, and then flirt with 90 inland Saturday through Tuesday. There is a chance of a heat wave (3 straight 90° days) inland in that timeframe. Scattered t-storms are possible Saturday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through.

It will be dry (but humid) Sunday and Monday. More t-storms are possible Tuesday and/or Wednesday as another disturbance approaches from the west. It’s unclear if the heat will totally or partly break in the midweek. There are some signs that it may be just a minor step back temperature-wise in the mid to late workweek. The overall pattern favors warmer than normal weather in the next two weeks, with the warmest likely in the near-term.

The weather action may pick up along the Eastern Seaboard in days 10-15. Before then, rainfall is likely to be below normal.

You may have heard about the “Godzilla” El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean. This abnormally warm water in the equatorial Pacific has an effect on worldwide weather pattern. It’s tough to say exactly what it will mean for fall and winter in Southern New England. There are other weekly patterns that have a bigger influence on winter weather in our area. Overall, look for an active storm track from California through the Southern States. I expect above normal precipitation this winter in SNE. El Niño also tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. So far, it has not been very active, and we are expecting a below normal season. However, Hurricane Bob, the last hurricane to make landfall in Rhode Island, was during an El Niño year. We can’t let our guard down.

Long-Range Forecast – August 11

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The temperature has been steadily falling since a hot start to the month. The first five days of August featured an average high temperature of 88° in the Providence area. The average high temperature in the last five days is 78°. For the month, the temperature is running less than 1° cooler than normal.

After Tuesday’s rain, a relatively quiet weather pattern will last through the workweek into the weekend. The temperature will bounce back to near and above normal in the next 4-5 days. It will not be humid through Thursday before muggy weather returns late Friday into the weekend. A stray inland shower is possible on Wednesday, but, other than that, it will be dry with some great beach weather late in the workweek.

A weak cold front could trigger an inland shower or storm on Saturday. It looks like that front will dissipate, and Sunday should be warm and seasonably humid. Looking ahead to next week, very warm to hot weather is in the forecast through the midweek, and possibly longer. Will have to keep an eye on the Eastern Seaboard for some potentially unsettled weather, but, at this point, it looks like it will stay away from SNE. Expect it to feel like mid-summer through the end of next week. See the video for more.