Archive for category: New Hampshire

The weather pattern this week will be dominated by the slow-moving storm that will bring strong winds and heavy rain on Tuesday. While the storm will not be nearly as fierce Wednesday and Thursday, it will still be close enough for scattered rain showers on Wednesday, and rain or snow showers on Thursday. In fact, it may not be until midday Saturday before the storm finally moves offshore and high pressure begins to move in from the west. The weekend looks relatively quiet, with highs in the 40s.

Looking ahead to next week, the odds favor fairly quiet weather. A developing system will probably stay far enough south and east of New England that it does not bring substantial snow/rain in the midweek. Overall, it looks like the storm track will be suppressed to the south, and the weather over New England will be warmer than normal, but not as warm as the Midwest. If the midweek storm next week stays south, than there could be a 8-10 day stretch of dry and seasonably mild weather to take us to around December 20-22. There are still signs that it will turn colder and stormier after Christmas through the New Year.

November weather can be a pretty good indicator of what kind of winter it will be in Southern New England. If it is this year, then get set for a harsh winter in New England because November was cold, wet, and snowy. While we do not think the upcoming winter will be as cold (relative to normal) as November was, we expect it to be stormy and snowy. It looks like December will actually be a relatively mild month before it turns seasonably cold in January and February.

There is a slight chance that El Niño develops this winter, but even if it does not, there will still likely be enough of an influence on the southern branch of the jet stream to allow for an active storm track across the Southeastern United States. Last winter featured many small winter weather events. We think there is a better chance of bigger storms moving through this winter. As always, precipitation type will be an issue in Southern New England with these storms, so we are not going bonkers with our snow forecast. There is usually around 35″ of snow in the Providence area, so a forecast of 100-150% of normal is for about 35-50″ of snow.

The confidence level is fairly high that it will not be a dry winter. There is less certainty about the temperature, and if the pattern reverts to what it was in November by late in December or early January, than it could be colder than our forecast of slightly warmer than normal conditions for the season.

November will go in the books in a few days as cool and wet in Southern New England. December, however, will most likely begin with near or above normal temperatures and near precipitation in the first ten days of the month. While we will see some rain from time to time in the first third of the month, it does not look like there will be many big snow threats. In fact, we could get a break from the bigger storms that we saw in November – at least for a little while.

The weather will be quiet and get warmer early next week. A cold front will move through in the midweek bringing rain showers then colder weather. Another system may threaten with rain late next week, and that’s a theme that will most likely carry into the following week. Up and down temperatures with occasional weather systems that pass west of Southern New England, keeping rain instead of snow in the forecast.

The coldest weather in nearly eight months is heading for New England in the middle of the week. Highs will struggle to reach 35 on Wednesday – even with some sunshine. There could be snow showers or flurries as warmer air tries to arrive late Wednesday night. The temperature should reach the 40s on Thursday before a reinforcing cold shot arrives for Friday into the weekend.

Highs may not make it out of the 30s again on Saturday. Sunday looks milder, with highs in the 40s to possibly low 50s with enough sunshine. The next storm that will hit Southern New England will likely bring rain and mild weather early next week. Unlike this week, there could be a second storm that follows on the heels of the first, bringing more rain in the middle of the week. The track and development of the second storm is still in question, and we’ll be watching the trends closely.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, right now it looks dry and cool, but not brutally cold. The general trend of cold/dry weather followed by wet/mild weather may continue into early December.