Archive for category: New Hampshire

There will be a brief warm-up in the middle of the week before a cold front threatens with showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday into early Friday. The weekend is shaping up to be seasonably warm with sunshine giving way to clouds late Sunday as the jet stream buckles again in the Eastern United States. Another shot of unseasonably cool weather is heading of the Great Lakes and Midwest next week, and the pattern will be unsettled along the East Coast.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible from at least the start to middle of next week as the trough slowly moves through the Northeast. It’s hard to say if any day will be a total washout, but, in a worst-case scenario there could be a few inches of rain in Southern New England during next workweek. Even after the system moves away, there will not be any big-time heat moving into the Northeast. There is not likely to be any big shift in the overall jet stream pattern through early August.

The threat of locally heavy rain continues through late Wednesday as a front slowly eases through New England. The best chance of torrential downpours in RI and SE MA is from Tuesday night through mid-afternoon Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through that time.

After the storm system moves offshore, there should be a decent stretch Thursday into, and possibly through, the weekend. The latest information suggests that most of the showers along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday and Sunday will stay out of RI and SE MA. It may not be the sunniest weekend of the summer, but, at this point, it does not look bad with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s under partly cloudy skies.

The same general weather pattern will hold into the middle of next week. We’ll be watching the progression, or lack thereof, of a disturbance in the Eastern United States. This time of the year, a ridge may be able to hold on and keep Southern New England in typical mid-summer weather with some humidity. By late in the week, the shower threat increases, and it’s unlikely to stay completely dry through next weekend.

While the occasional very warm to hot day is possible, we are not expecting any extended 90°+ stretches through the next two weeks. To date, the highest temperature of the year in Providence is 91, and there have only been three 90° days – a far cry from last year.

We do not see the tropics becoming active in the next two weeks.

So far, this summer is going about how we thought it would. The overriding theme of our summer forecast was for a “warm” summer with a lack of extreme heat. To date, the warmest it’s been at TF Green Airport is 90°. It may make it to 90° in the next couple of days, but it will not be much above 90. After that, there is little chance of 90° heat in the next 7-14 days. By comparison, there were 12 days over 92° by July 20 of last year.

The next few days will feature hazy, breezy, and humid weather. There is a t-storm threat, but it’s primarily inland – unless they happen at night, in which case the storms may hang on better near the coast. Showers/storms will likely be scattered, and some places may not see any rain this workweek.

Friday into the weekend looks pleasant, with lower humidity and highs in the low 80s. An approaching front will bring the chance of showers or storms in the mid to late weekend. It’s a little early to give exact timing on the front, but it looks like it will be between Saturday night and Sunday night.

Cool weather will arrive in the Upper Midwest in the next 7 days, and the boundary between the cool weather and warm/humid weather will not be far from Southern New England, and that could mean a few unsettled days early next week. Once again, with summertime rains, it’s tough to talk specifics so far away from the event, but, let’s just say showers are possible Mon-Wed. With cool weather to our west, it looks like we’ll be free from big-time heat through July 20.

The Right Weather Spring Outlook turned out to be pretty accurate. The overall weather pattern has not changed too much in the last few months, and we were right about the spring gradually getting warmer (relative to normal) and May breaking the streak of six consecutive colder than normal months in Southeastern New England. We also called for near-normal precipitation, and TF Green Airport was only 8% above normal for the season. Now, as we head into June, it’s time to turn our attention to meteorological summer (June, July, August) and the Atlantic Hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30.

Last year’s hurricane outlook was a disaster for most forecasting outlets. It was an uneventful year after most forecasters predicted an above normal season. This year, assuming an El Niño continues to develop, the forecast could be easier. Typically, there is below normal activity in the Atlantic Basin during an El Niño. Of the last ten El Niños, there was only one year (2004) with above normal hurricane activity. As you can see in the video, we are not expecting this to be a particularly active year. However, that does not prevent Southern New England from being hit by a storm. The last hurricane to make landfall in Southern New England was Bob in 1991 – an El Niño year.

It does not look like the overall weather pattern will change much in the first half of June, and possibly longer. We are not expecting any extended searing heat for most or all of June. It’s possible the pattern could shift in July and/or August, but we do not expect as many 90° days as last year (13) in the Providence area this summer. Having said that, we think the average temperature will be slightly above normal.

Rainfall-wise, There will be several shots at steady rain in the first half of June, so the start of the summer may be wetter than normal. We expect the entire summer to feature near-normal rainfall. It’s always a tricky forecast because of the hit and miss nature of summer thunderstorms. See the video for more on our outlook.