Long-Range Forecast – April 11

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It looks like the weather will take a favorable turn in the middle of this week. Rain on Tuesday will give way to dry weather by Wednesday. High pressure north of New England will keep it seasonable or slightly cool with a northeast breeze into the weekend. An offshore storm may enhance the northeast breeze at times.

It looks like the dry weather will hold this weekend with a warming trend likely Saturday and Sunday. The dry stretch may end in the middle of next week as a storm brings rain sometime between Tuesday and Thursday. The overall pattern favors seasonable or cool weather continuing into late April. It does not look particularly stormy, but it will likely not be as dry as the stretch from Wednesday into early next week.

The strong El Niño is fading, and some computer models are indicating a flip to a La Niña by the fall. I’m not certain the flip will happen that quickly, but the fading El Niño means that the tropical season is likely to be more active than a quiet 2015 season.

 

Long-Range Forecast – April 3

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April is off to a rough start with snow on two of the first three days of the month.Monday’s storm led to some headaches for travelers as roads were a little slick early in the day. It will be relatively cold through the midweek, even as sunshine returns on Tuesday. As soon as the wind shifts to the south and warmer weather returns, there will be a storm system bringing rain Thursday afternoon and night.

A deep dip in the jet stream (trough) will move into the Northeast after the storm on Friday, and the weekend will either be very cool and dry or another storm (or two) developing near the base of the trough will come close enough to bring rain and possibly mixed precipitation. Right now, we’re leaning towards the dry/cool scenario, which is the lesser of two evils, I guess. The temperature will be running 10-15° below normal this weekend.

The pattern looks unsettled and somewhat cool next week, too. More rain is possible in the midweek, and there could be another storm bringing rain into next weekend. Overall, there is not a heck of a lot to look forward to through mid-April. It looks like the best chance of seeing near or above normal temperatures is not with sunshine, but with the rain events and a southerly wind. Precipitation is likely to be well above normal through mid-month, and the temperature will be near or below normal. Really, the only chance of near normal is if the storm track is to our west and brings in mild air that stays for 1-2 days. If the storm track shifts and we don’t get the warmer southerly winds with the rain, then it will average well below normal through the middle of April.