Long-Range Forecast – April 27

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Overall, the weather pattern looks rather quiet for the next couple of weeks. There is a close-call with a storm late this workweek, but it looks like it will stay far enough offshore to not bring steady rain and strong winds. Friday will be unseasonably cool and breezy to windy, but not a washout.

The weather will turn around this weekend, and a mild Sunday is likely. Highs will be in the 60s on Sunday. It may reach the 70s inland for a couple of days early next week. After that, it is not likely that there will be any major storms late next week into the Mother’s Day weekend. That does not mean it will be dry all the time, but the disturbances coming through do not look particularly strong.

The jet stream is fairly amplified this week, but the storm track will keep steady rain away. Next week, it looks like a more zonal (west to east) flow that will keep the temperature near to slightly above normal, and precipitation will likely be below normal.

Long-Range Forecast – April 23

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The temperature barely reached 50° on Thursday in the Providence area. That’s more than 10° cooler than normal for the date. There were also some snow showers in Connecticut! So, after a mild stretch in mid-April, we are back into a cool pattern. The temperature will be at or below normal for the next week or so. It will be a mainly dry pattern in the next week to 10 days. Just a stray shower is possible on Friday, and the weekend will likely be dry.

A disturbance moving through early next week will likely trigger showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Monday. It may be close enough for a few more showers on Tuesday. Highs will be in the 50s from Friday through Tuesday.

The middle of next week should be closer to normal for late April and early May. Right now, it does not look like there are any big storms coming down the pike, and it may be mainly dry through most of the first week of May. Cold fronts could bring scattered showers from time to time. The pattern looks fairly progressive.

Headlines

  • Mainly dry pattern next two weeks
  • Cooler than normal for the next 6 days. Near to slightly warmer than normal after that.
  • Still don’t see a big pattern change that would lead to an extended stretch of warm weather.
  • A extended stretch of cool/raw weather is also unlikely in this pattern. The next 6 days, while a bit cool, will not feature an onshore breeze that makes it raw/damp at this time of the year.

2015-04-23-Headlines

Long-Range Forecast – April 20

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Monday was the unsettled and cooler weather that we mentioned in the Long-Range Forecast on April 9. And, as we mentioned during last week’s Long-Range Forecast, there will be a cut-off area of low pressure hanging around the Northeast at the end of April. Initially, this cut-off low will mean seasonably cool and mainly dry weather late this workweek through the weekend. One potential fly in the ointment is a storm moving through the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Right now, it looks like it will stay south of Southern New England, but it bears watching.

As we get farther into the long-range, there is the potential for a storm to form near the Northeast coast. I do not expect that to happen until sometime between April 29-May 4, if at all. The large-scale pattern is not favorable for an extended warm-up through early May.

Long-Range Forecast – April 16

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I hate to put it bluntly, but don’t get used to the gorgeous weather that we have enjoyed for the past couple of days. While we will have a nice weekend, most of the next two weeks looks somewhat unsettled in New England. Showers are possible Friday, followed by a dry weekend. Early next week, a soaking rain is likely from a storm system pulling out of the Southeastern United States. It’ll be a close call for the Boston Marathon runners, and some of the later finishers may get wet. The rain will arrive in RI and SE MA by midday, and it will be steady by late in the afternoon. Heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms roll through Monday night. Look for a break in the action Tuesday PM through Wednesday before rain threatens again later in the workweek. A cut-off area of low pressure is unlikely to bring soaking rain, but showers may be in the forecast for several straight days. As for a warm-up, don’t expect it with a cool pool of air over the Northeast in late April.

Long-Range Forecast – April 13

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Relatively mild weather will continue through the midweek before a general cooling trend happens in the late workweek into early next week. There is nothing terribly cold or very warm in the forecast for the next couple of weeks. The best chances for rain this week are Tuesday (spotty AM showers), Friday (few spotty showers possible), and Saturday PM (best chance of 0.25″ of rain). None of the systems look like washouts.

The weather looks dry and seasonably cool Sunday through Monday. Boston Marathoners should have decent running conditions. Showers are possible again in the middle of next week. The overall pattern for late-April looks near to colder than normal. It also looks like there could be some rainy systems heading for the Northeast near the end of the month. It doesn’t look awful, but don’t expect a huge, extended warm-up in the next couple of weeks.

Long-Range Forecast – April 9

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The past few days have been damp and dreary, but brighter times are ahead. We’ll have a pretty nice stretch of weather from Saturday through the middle of next week. It will be dry except for a chance of showers Monday night into early Tuesday. Highs inland may crack 60° several times before the end of next workweek. Most of the time it will be cooler near the coast because of an onshore breeze. So far April has been another relatively cool month, but we should see the temperature creep closer to normal by mid-month with the warmup ahead in the next week.

It does not look like the warmer and dry stretch will last for too long. Slow-moving weather systems could lead to unsettled and/or cool weather beginning sometime next weekend or early the following week. It’s too early to talk about details, but the pattern does not look great between about April 19 and April 25.

Long-Range Forecast – March 6

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The middle of this week will feature typical lousy Southern New England mid-spring weather. We’ll see a northeast breeze and water temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. The air temperature will mirror the ocean temperature Wednesday and Thursday. The best chance of rain appears to be Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The temperature may reach the upper 40s on Tuesday. It will not get much above 40 on Wednesday or Thursday.

There is a shot at much milder weather on Friday ahead of a cold front. If the warm front lifts far enough north, the wind will shift to the southwest. With a bit of sunshine, the temperature could bust into the 60s. Rain is likely late Friday into early Saturday.

The weekend is shaping up to be pretty nice. Look for partly cloudy skies on Saturday, and mostly sunny skies on Sunday. Both days should feature highs well into the 50s. It will be nice and mild early next week before more rain threatens in the midweek.

The outlook for late next week into next weekend is for mainly dry weather. Temperatures look near or slightly below normal. Looking way dow the road, we’re still keeping an eye out for a blocky pattern. If it pans out, it will be mainly dry/cool in Southern New England for the last third of April.

Long-Range Forecast – April 3

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Not much has changed regarding the outlook for the next couple of weeks. We are expecting plenty of April showers through the middle of the month. Of course, there will be dry days mixed in, but it looks like it may be raining or threatening to rain on several days between Friday and April 15. The best chances of rain are on April 3, 7, 9, 11. A conservative estimate is for at least a couple of inches of rain in Southeastern New England by April 15. That will put us near to above normal at the midway point of the month. I

The temperature will be near to below normal most of the time in the next couple of weeks. Looking further down the road, the wet pattern may dry up in late April. However, it does not look like there will be a huge warm-up. See the video for more.