Long-Range Forecast – May 29

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All of Southeastern New England has seen less than 25% of the normal precipitation so far this month. In most spots, it’s closer to 10-15% of the normal precipitation. In the past 60 days, all of Southeastern New England has received less than half the normal amount of precipitation. It’s no wonder there is a moderate drought throughout the area. There is some relief ahead with potential for a moderate to heavy showers late in the weekend and early next week. It’s unclear exactly how it will play out, but the potential exists for a couple of inches of rain over a three-day stretch. It will be unseasonably cool from late Sunday into the middle of next week. The temperature could struggle to reach 60 on Monday and/or Tuesday.

High pressure will arrive on Wednesday, and the early outlook is for fair weather with a warming trend into next weekend. The temperature should be back above normal by Friday or Saturday. We’re keeping our eye on the Western Atlantic Ocean near the Southeast US coast for storm development in the first couple of weeks of June. Anything that develops there needs to be watched closely. Overall, it will continue to be warmer than normal most of the time after the cool interlude early next week. The pattern favors near to above normal precipitation in the next couple of weeks, with the lion’s share coming Sun-Tue of next week.

Long-Range Forecast – May 26

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The ocean is still on the cool side in late-May, and that is tempering this week’s warm-up in a good chunk of Southeastern New England. North and west of I-95 the temperature is reaching  the 80s, but it is staying in the 70s and 60s closer to the coast. The same general trend will continue for the rest of this workweek. Clouds may actually be stubborn on a day or two near the coast. It’s not unusual for the shoreline to not break out of the low clouds and fog in this type of pattern at this time of the year. It will not be too cool at night, but they’ll not be sweltering mid-summer nights, either. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

There is a good chance of showers on Sunday, and they may linger into early next week. After that, relatively warm and muggy air will works its way back into the Northeast by mid to late next week. The pattern does not look as dry as it has been lately. That’s good news as all of Southern New England slipped into a moderate drought as of last week. Check out the video for more.

 

Long-Range Forecast – May 22

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The Memorial Day weekend will begin with unseasonably cool weather, but do not expect it to last for long. A developing southwest breeze and ridge off the East Coast will lead to an extended stretch of very warm and muggy weather in Southern New England. The temperature could reach 90° inland as soon as Tuesday afternoon, and a heat wave away from the coast is not out of the question next week. There is not a very high potential for rain in this pattern. Thunderstorms are possible at times late next week, but it looks like most of the action will be west of Southeastern New England.

Overall, a warmer than normal pattern will hold through the end of May into early June. The ridge may break down bringing an end to the hot weather, but it looks like it will stay rather muggy, and overnight low temperatures will be well above normal most of the time after Memorial Day through the following week. The ocean temperature is slowly warming, but it may still be cool enough to allow for patchy dense fog at night that takes a while to burn off in the morning on some days. Check out the video for more on the upcoming pattern.

Long-Range Forecast – May 19

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Through Monday, rain totals were running at about 10% of normal in the last month in Southeastern New England. Showers on Tuesday morning provided some spots with more than 0.25″ of rain. After those showers, we’ll be back in a mainly dry pattern for the rest of the workweek and through most or all of the Memorial Day weekend. There are two systems that could bring showers in that time frame. The first is on Friday as a storm slides out to sea south of Southern New England. At this point, it looks like it will stay away. There is also the possibility of showers on Memorial Day if a backdoor cold front slides far enough south and a wave of low pressure rides along it. This could happen, but there are about equal odds that it stays north of SNE and the weather stays fair and warm on Monday.

A system coming through in the middle of next week will threaten with showers. After that, the pattern gets tricky – as they often do when we’re transitioning from spring to summer. From my perspective, it looks like a mild to warmer than normal pattern with a better chance of some rain in late May and early June. The pattern looks fairly progressive, which means no extended warm/cold stretches, and probably a rain threat every 3-4 days.

2015-05-19-Headlines

Long-Range Forecast – May 14

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It will not be quite as dry in the next week or two as it has been in the past three weeks, but it does not look like a very wet pattern, either. The total rainfall will likely be below normal. The best chances for rain are Saturday, Tuesday, and late in the Memorial Day weekend. Saturday and Tuesday look like showers, with Tuesday having the best chance of 0.25″ of rain. That’s not very much.

Temperature-wise, it may get warm on Sunday, but the wind will shift to the northeast on Monday, and it looks seasonable or a bit cool for a good chunk of next workweek. The temperature will likely bounce back to warmer than normal over the Memorial Day weekend.

Long-Range Forecast – May 11

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It has been downright summer-like for the past couple of days away from the coast. At this time of the year, the coast is much cooler and there’s always fog flirting when there is a southwest breeze. We’ll have one more warm and muggy day before cooler weather arrives Tuesday night. The weather looks pleasant from Wednesday through Friday. A weak disturbance could trigger a few showers on Saturday. It bears watching. We could definitely use the rain, but nobody wants it on the weekend. Right now, it does not look like anything close to a washout. Seasonably cool weather is likely Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Next week looks fairly quiet. It will not be very warm and muggy, but it should not be too cool, either. There are no organized soaking rain storms on the radar for the next 7-10 days. Further down the road, it looks like the warmth and humidity will return around the Memorial Day weekend. Overall, May is expected to be warmer than normal, with well below normal precipitation.

Long-Range Forecast – May 7

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We’re definitely in a nice groove weather-wise in Southern New England. It will stay fair through the weekend, with the warmer days on Friday and Sunday. Muggy weather is likely early next week as a front slowly approaches from the west. The system pictured below has a 90% chance of becoming Sub-tropical Storm Ana in the next 48 hours. It will meander near the SE US for a bit, and may get drawn north early next week. Right now, it does not look like it will have much punch or moisture left when it gets here ahead of the front, but it bears watching for enhanced rainfall if it holds together.

90% chance this becomes Sub-tropical Storm Ana

90% chance this becomes Sub-tropical Storm Ana

The weather will turn cooler and likely be dry late next workweek into next weekend. The outlook for late next weekend through the middle of the following week is for mainly dry, but warmer weather to return. Check out the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – May 4

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The temperature soared into the 80s away from the coast on Monday. I have yet to hear anyone complain about the heat, and that’s probably due to the kind of winter we just endured. It looks like the relatively warm spring weather is here to stay through the Mother’s Day weekend into early next week. Aside from a few stray showers on Tuesday, the pattern looks dry through the end of the week. Lows will be in the 50s for several days between Tuesday and next Monday. Highs will routinely reach the 70s inland, and it will be cooler near the coast most days because of a southwest breeze.

A cold front in the middle to end of next work week could bring a cool-down into the weekend of May 15-16, but it does not look terribly chilly for mid-May. In fact, signs are that their could be a rather pleasant area of high pressure that meanders out of central Canada and sets up shop in the Northeast.

It has been a dry spring, and that will not change much in the next couple of weeks. One potential fly in the ointment is a storm that may develop off the Carolina coast. It it becomes and organized system and gets drawn north by the jet stream, then a soaking rain is possible next week. Right now, that is not the likely scenario.

Long-Range Forecast – April 30

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April will go in the books as slightly cooler than normal with about 50% of the normal precipitation in Southeastern New England. The relatively dry month alleviated any flooding concerns in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts after the snowy winter.

May will begin with a very cool day on Friday, but most of the first half of the month will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Northeast. It looks warm inland early next week before a front threatens with showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The rest of the workweek looks dry and seasonably warm.

There are no major storms in the forecast for the next 10-14 days. The early outlook for May is for drier than normal weather in the first half of the month. There may be another surge of relatively warm weather late in Mother’s Day weekend and early the following week.