Archive for category: Rhode Island

Flurries, snow showers, and freezing drizzle provided a little weather excitement (and headaches) on Thursday, but it certainly was not the big snow event that snow-lovers in Southern New England are yearning for. At the midway point of the winter, there has only been about 6″ of snow in the Providence area. However, the pattern for the first half of January has been cold, and there are strong indications that it will stay that way for the last ten days of the month. The big difference will be the storm track shifts south of Southern New England.

So far this winter, we have gone from cold/dry stretches to brief warm-ups when the storms track over or west of Southern New England. It was a wet December and after Sunday’s storm we’ll likely be on track for at least near normal precipitation in January. But, of course, there is a big lack of snow. For it to get snowy, the storm track needs to shift to south of Southern New England, giving a chance for northeast winds to lock in the cold air. So, if the storm track is shifting south, then you must think it’s going to get snowy, but that is not always the case. If the track is too far south, and the trough at 500mb positively tilted, then the storms are likely to miss Southern New England to the south as they head out to sea. While that looks like the case for most of next week, I think there is a decent chance that we’ll get into a snowier pattern in late January and early February. The longer range models are occasionally showing storms that have a wintry look in the Northeastern United States in the 10-15 day timeframe. That has not been the case for most of the winter.

The coldest weather since early last January is heading for Southern New England this week. The temperature will flirt with zero on Thursday morning, and wind chills will be -10 to -20. For the most part, the cold weather will not be accompanied by snow. Flurries and snow showers are possible on Tuesday, but it will not amount to more than a coating – at worst. Another clipper may bring up to 2″ of snow on Friday, but that does not look like a huge deal, either. In the early to middle part of next week there could be a system that comes out of the Southern states carrying more moisture, but it’s unclear how far north it will get, and, right now, it looks like it will mainly stay south of Southern New England.

The overall trend through the middle of the month is for cold and dry weather to persist in Southern New England. There may be snow on the ground, but it will likely not be deep, with no big storms ahead for the next week. With cold air around, the snow outlook can change quickly if a storm gets cranking, so, we’re hesitant to say that there definitely will not be a moderate or major storm between January 12-19, but, right now, it does not look too promising for a big one. A week or two ago we said we were leery of the cold/dry to warm/wet pattern this winter, and, so far, that has been the case. It was a cold end to 2014 and cool start to the New Year, but when the storm arrived it brought 1″+ of precipitation and only 1-2″ of snow.

See the headlines and video below.

The unseasonably mld stretch of weather is gradually ending in Southern New England. It will be near or slightly below normal to round out 2014 and begin 2015 this week. It will also be dry into the weekend. There is little doubt that the overall weather pattern looks colder in the next couple of weeks, but the devil is in the details of whether it will be cold and dry or cold and snowy. The first challenge is with a weather system arriving late this weekend. It’s still possible that there will be snow or mixed precipitation from that system, even though most models are mild with mainly or all rain.

Next week there will be another huge area of high pressure bringing more cold weather to the Western United States that bleeds east during the week. The boundary between the cold weather and relatively warm weather in the Southeastern United States may prove to be fertile breeding grounds for inclement weather. While this pattern does not promise snow, there is certainly potential for it. As the weather gets more active, we’ll be adding Computer Model Trends updates when storms threaten. So, even though the day to day weather is not very predictable 5+ days out in this pattern, we’ll be doing our best to let you know what’s on the way.

Where’s winter? That’s the question a lot of New Englanders are asking these days. December has been slightly mild and very wet to date. With another soaker on the way, this may become a top-10 wettest December on record in the Providence area where the records date back to 1904. It will also be unseasonably mild for a few days, and that should push this month from “slightly mild” to “very mild” by the end of the weekend.

There are still some signs that the pattern will change late in the month and early next year, but it does not look like as much of a slam dunk as I thought it would be. It will be colder next week, and our first shot at snow is early in the week. Very cold weather will move into the western United States, and it will slowly slide east. There may be opportunities for snow, but there is nothing glaring that suggests it’s imminent. There has not been a lot of run to run consistency among the computer models in the 8-15 day range. Sometimes it looks like we’re in for a rather snowy 8-10 days, other times it’s cold and quiet, and there are some runs where it’s not even that cold!

I will be watching this pattern evolve over the next few days, and the next Long Range Forecast will be on Friday. Have a Merry Christmas!