At the midway point, December 2014 is running near the normal temperature in Southern New England. It has been quite wet, with more than normal monthly precipitation falling in the first 10 days of the month. The pattern has quieted in the last week, but it looks like the action could pick up as we hit the last 10 days.

There will be a week system coming through in the midweek that will bring rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon looks mild, with highs in the upper 40s. More quiet and seasonably cool weather is likely from Thursday into the weekend.

We are watching the potential for a storm late in the weekend. While it’s still possible that we will get hit, we’re beginning to think this one may mostly miss Southern New England, with just some snow showers ahead for Sunday. The trend over the past couple of days has been for a “flatter” system that slides out to sea south of Southern New England. That helps to keep the cold air in place, but the heavy precipitation does not make it into Rhode Island or Southeastern Massachusetts. It’s still several days away, so there could be further forecast changes.

Looking past the weekend, there is a pretty good chance of a storm around Christmas. Right now, it looks like Christmas Eve is the best bet for precipitation. Unfortunately, for those hoping for a white Christmas, the early projection for the storm is for it to draw in enough mild air for rain in Southeastern New England. Once again, there is a lot of uncertainty with such a specific forecast that is 9-10 days out, and there could be changes.

It seems that we’re in transitional phase over the next 10-14 days to a colder pattern. However, the prevailing storm track between now and then may not be favorable for a lot of snow in Southern New England. The pattern will likely yield another storm before or around the New Year.

Based on the active pattern, it’s possible this December will be among the top 10 wettest in the past 80 years in Southeastern New England. However, it will likely not be among the snowiest – in fact, if the weekend storm does not materialize, it could be among the least snowiest. So far this month, there has only been a trace of snow in the Providence area. It would be interesting to have such a wet month without much snow when the temperature pattern is not that much above normal.

HEADLINES

– Active storm track last 10 days of month – no snow guarantees
– Pattern trends colder late in the month
– Above normal precipitation next two weeks
– Near normal temperature next two weeks

Sorry about the lack of video and graphics in this update. Unfortunately, my workhorse Macbook Pro is on life support after suffering from a common problem that Apple does not consider to be a “known issue”. I’m off to the Apple store to get it looked at.