Archive for year: 2015

If you’re a weather buff, remember this month. You may never see another one like it. February 2015 will go into the books as the one of the coldest and snowiest months on record in Southern New England. It looks like it will be the coldest on record in Hartford and Worcester, and second coldest in Providence and Boston. It’s the snowiest February on record in Worcester and Boston, second in Providence, and third in Worcester.

Every day this month will be colder than normal in Providence. In fact, the streak of below normal days dates back to January 26. If you don’t think that is a remarkable stat, I challenge you to start keeping track of the streaks of colder/warmer than normal weather after this one ends. You may not see one longer than this (warm or cold) in your lifetime. There is another cold weather stat or two in the video.

There is a chance of light snow Tuesday night as a system shoots by east of New England. The best chance of picking up a couple of inches is on Cape Cod. On Thursday, there will be a storm moving off the Southeastern United States coast. We’re keeping an eye on it for a slight chance of snow as it has trended north. Right now, odds still favor a miss.

The weekend looks fairly quiet, with a cold end to the month on Saturday. It may reach 40° for the first in forever (Jan 19) on Sunday ahead of the next storm that will likely bring mixed precipitation and rain early next week. After that, there will be more cold/dry weather for a bit. Overall, the pattern looks colder than normal through the first half of March, and probably longer than that. While it will be staying relatively cold, the chill will not be as bad because the normal temperature is steadily rising as we near spring. Two weeks from now, the normal high is 46°. Boston is within shouting distance of its all-time winter snow record, and will get there with just a normal amount of snow from here on out. Odds are, there will be near to above snowfall in the next few weeks, so history could be made in Boston this March.

It looks like the cold weather pattern will persist into March in the Northeastern United States. However, Southern New England may be spared the brunt of the stormy weather in the next couple of weeks. After light snow Tuesday morning, there may be occasional flurries and snow showers into the end of the workweek. It should not be a big deal. An elongated storm system moves across the country late in the workweek, and it will arrive in Southern New England late Saturday into Sunday. The models are showing this as a relatively warm system cutting to our north, but we expect it to trend south and bring more snow than rain. It does not look very intense, but any snow at this point is too much for many Southern New Englanders.

Next week’s pattern looks cold and mainly dry early in the week. The European model wants to send a system our way in the midweek, but the GFS is not as robust. The end of next workweek looks dry and cold.

Just a little tidbit…every day since January 26 has been colder than normal in Providence. If the weekend storm stays south, there is a decent chance that the streak lasts through the end of February. It’s already the longest streak of colder or warm weather that I can remember, and I will be digging through the records trying to find a calendar month where every day was warmer or colder than normal.

It is hard to keep track of all the snowstorms we have had in the past few weeks. This is one of the most incredible stretches of winter weather in Southern New England’s recorded history. It is by far the snowiest 30-day stretch in Boston, and it will likely be the snowiest February on record in Boston. It has not been <em>as </em>snowy in Providence, but it still ranks among the all-time great runs for snow-lovers, and it is by no means over yet.

We are looking at snow potential for Thursday night and/or Saturday night. Further down the road, it looks like the southern branch of the jet stream could get active, and if the storm track stays to our south, some big storms are possible before the end of February. As mentioned in the video, there are <em>three</em> major East Coast storms between February 20 and March 4 on the European monthly computer model which came out this evening. While it’s tough to accurately predict the details of such events so far into the future, it certainly speaks to the high-potential pattern that will stay in place.

Aside from the snow, this is shaping up to be among the top-5 coldest Februarys on record in the Providence area. To me, that’s even more remarkable than the snow…I think. It doesn’t really matter. Either way, this has turned into a winter to remember after an extremely slow start.

We see no reason to change our view that there will be many chances for snow in the next two to three weeks in Southeastern New England. It remains to be seen if it will become the kind of hyper-active pattern that we’ve seen in February and/or March for the past couple of years, but it looks a lot more like winter than the pattern we saw for December and part of January. Not every storm (see Saturday) is going to deliver on its full potential for snow, but, for snow-lovers (of which there are many and they tend to make the most noise) at least we are talking about the possibility of snow where that was not even discussed in most of December and early January.

The pattern has a high potential for storminess, but it is more of a lock for cold weather. There is not much doubt that there will be ample cold air around, and possibly some extremely frigid outbreaks in the next two to three weeks. That’s not great news for our heating bills, but, at least the cost of oil is lower than in many recent winters.

Specifically, we’re watching a storm threat early next week. It would be all snow, but it’s unclear if the system will pass to far south and east to bring accumulating snow or if there will be several inches of fluff. The timing is Monday into Monday night. There will probably be a dry and very cold midweek. Further down the road, the northern branch of the jet stream will probably be active, and if some of the energy phases with the southern branch, then potentially big East Coast storms could be on the table. As stated earlier, it’s not a lock, but it’s not like it was earlier in the winter when we were saying there’s no chance of it happening.

A long video below with lots of interesting graphics!