Archive for year: 2015

The second half of winter was one for the record books. I, for one, hope that we never see another month like February 2015 in Southeastern New England. The snow was remarkable, and the cold was unbearable. Here we are on the cusp of another winter, and, just like last year, there is no sign of winter-like weather at the start of the season. The first two to three weeks of December are likely to be much warmer than normal, and possibly snow-free, in Southeastern New England. You may remember similar weather last December, when the temperature was a few degrees warmer than normal, and there was less than an inch of snow in the Providence area. There were some wild temperature swings in the first three-plus weeks of January, but not much snow. Then, late in the month, all hell broke loose, and we know what happened in February and March.

I see this winter following a similar pattern as far as the winter being back-loaded with the lion’s share of cold and snow after mid-January. As for it turning brutally cold like last winter, I don’t expect a repeat performance, but I expect the winter to trend colder, and February/March may be colder than normal. This may come as a surprise to some, but the last two winters have both been colder than normal in Southeastern New England. I expect this winter to be milder than both of those, but not extremely warm. By March 1, I think the temperature will average pretty close to normal over the previous three months.

An El Niño usually brings an active storm track to the Southern United States, and we are already seeing evidence of that. A relatively dry fall will transition to a wetter than normal winter in Southeastern New England. In December, while it’s wet, it will likely not be very white. Think of last winter which saw 150% of the normal precipitation, but little snow. I don’t think this December will be <em>that wet, </em>but there should be at least the normal amount of precipitation.

Snow-fall wise, it’s a tough forecast. Because the pattern will be stormy, there will be many chances for snow, but the storm track, at least in December, is not favorable for snow. That track should shift farther east, and I expect near to above normal snow – closer to the winter of 2013-14 than last winter. Check out the video for more!

Of course, dating back to my days at ABC6, I offer a couple of “shot in the dark” forecasts for a white Christmas and a big snowstorm totaling more than 12″ in Providence. This year, I don’t see a white Christmas for Southeastern New England. However, with such an active storm track, I think there’s a better than normal chance of getting a storm that produces at least a foot of snow. We’ll vote yes for that, and I look forward to whatever weather heads our way in the next few months!

It will be an unusually quiet weather pattern in the Eastern United States during Thanksgiving week. That’s great news for travelers, and the weather should be nice for Thanksgiving day high school football games throughout New England.

A storm off the East Coast late in the weekend and early next week will not be a big bother. A few showers are possible on Cape Cod and the islands Sunday into Monday. It will bring in some cooler air, and highs will only be in the low to mid 40s with a north-northeast breeze early in the week.

High pressure will settle overhead in the midweek, and Wednesday will be a clear and pleasantly cool day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s. It will likely get a bit warmer on Thanksgiving, with highs near 50. Black Friday looks dry and relatively mild. Highs will be well into the 50s.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a weakening cold front may bring rain showers Saturday night into Sunday, but it does not look like a soaking rain. The weekend will begin with mild weather before turning cooler on Sunday.

We are watching the pattern closely during the first few days of December. There are signs that conditions may be ripe for a storm near the New England coast, and at this time of the year precipitation type can be an issue. We’re not saying there’s a snow storm ahead for early December, but there may be a storm that brings some wintry weather our way. Overall, the pattern does not look terribly cold early next month.

&nbsp;

Sometimes the monthly summary is not an accurate snapshot of what the weather was like for that month. For instance, this October will go in the books with about 65% of the normal precipitation in the Providence area. However, 75% of the days were dry, and more than half the monthly rainfall happened with the strong storm that hit earlier this week. The monthly temperature average will be near normal, but there were some wild swings including a couple of days that were 13° below normal, and three days that were at least 11° warmer than normal.

Heading into November, the over-arching theme is for warmer than normal weather in Southeastern New England for the first half of the month. That’s not to say that there will not be an occasional cool day, but most of the time it will be warmer than normal. It also looks like the mainly dry pattern is going to stay with us for a while. The first week of the month may be completely dry.

It looks slightly more unsettled between Nov 7-11, then it’s probably back to more dry weather through the middle of the month. There is no sign of a sharp cool-down similar to what we saw in mid-October. Enjoy it while it lasts!

A mainly dry pattern will continue through the middle of next week. The best chance of a few showers between now and then is 6am-12pm on Sunday, but it does not look like a soaking rain. It will be seasonable Monday through Wednesday.

A cold front moving through the northern states will scoop up some tropical moisture and bring rain sometime between next Wednesday night and early Friday morning. At this point, it looks like a good bet for at least a half-inch of much-needed rain. Upwards of an inch is not out of the question.

The early outlook for Halloween is for dry and not too cold conditions. The weather pattern, however, will likely be getting more active in early November. Rain is possible late next weekend or early the following week.

Overall, there is no very cold weather in the forecast for the next couple of weeks. Just a couple of cool shots after fronts pass early Friday into Saturday, early next week, and late next workweek.