Most computer models are in agreement that the heavier rain with the upcoming event will be in western Southern New England and near New York City. It looks like there will be at least a half-inch of rain in New England east of CT. Some models have 1″+, and totals may vary because of the potential for heavier downpours in thunderstorms.
Click to enlarge the different model forecasts.
Rain is likely Friday night into, at least, Saturday morning as a front moves through New England. The rain may be heavy at times, and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. It looks like an inch of rain will fall in most spots. We have seen this system coming for a while. As mentioned in recent long-range forecasts, a cut-off area of low pressure will likely develop off the East Coast early next week. If the latest run of the European model is correct, then it will be a miserable stretch in New England from Friday night through the middle of next week.
The Euro keeps steady rain or showers going right through the weekend as the storm develops east of SNE. While not bringing steady rain after Monday, it remains an issue with showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. What are the odds of it happening? It’s possible given the pattern, but this is the first Euro run that paints such a bleak picture. The GFS while unsettled is not as nasty on Sunday.
Boston reached 80° for the third consecutive day on Monday. It was the first time that’s happened since September 2-4, 2013. Providence saw the warmest day since mid-September. Does this mean we’ve turned the corner to a warm spring pattern? No. Reality will bite Monday night as the wind shift to the northeast and brings in much cooler weather for the midweek. Highs will struggle to reach 60 on Tuesday, and it will only be in the low to mid 60s on Wednesday.
It will get warmer, especially inland, late in the workweek. Showers and thunderstorms threaten Friday PM into Saturday, and the first part of the weekend may be a washout. It looks drier on Sunday. Looking ahead to next week, a cut-off area of low pressure will be spinning off the Eastern Seaboard. Exactly where that sets up will have everything to say about the weather in Southern New England. If it’s close enough to Cape Cod, then we could be in for an extended cool/unsettled stretch of weather that lasts into the Memorial Day weekend. If it’s a bit farther away, then it will be dry and pleasant, but not particularly warm for late-May. At this point, it does not look like a worst-case scenario, but it’s a situation to watch closely.
The Long-Range Forecast is a day later than normal this week because of a prior commitment on Thursday. There has not been much change since Monday in the overall outlook for the next couple of weeks. The devil is in the details with a couple of potentially significant weather events between May 12-20. The first was the possibility of a big warm-up early next week. At this point, it looks like a back-door cold front will shorten than warm-up considerably, and it may lead to relatively cool weather by Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. The timing of the front is still questionable, but we are confident that it will make it into RI and SE MA. It looks like the warmest weather in the next couple of weeks may be between Saturday afternoon and Monday afternoon. At least Mother’s Day looks gorgeous.
The other potentially big weather event that we mentioned on Monday is the possibility of a slow-moving rainy pattern between May 15-20. The latest runs of the GFS are producing an extended period of unsettled weather that could lead to several inches of rain in a seven-day period. While it’s possible, once again, the key in a situation like that is exactly where the jet stream buckles and allows a slow-moving storm to form. The aforementioned GFS runs are bullish on a dreary pattern. The European model is not as aggressive with a long-lived rain event, but still brings at least one rainstorm between May 15-22.
With all that in mind, here are our thoughts on what to expect over the next couple of weeks.
A few snow showers may move through Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts Tuesday night and Wednesday. Right now, it looks like the best chance of snow showers is Wednesday afternoon, and they may not stick well to the pavement due to the high early March sun angle.
We are expecting a cold start to spring with the pattern switching to near or above normal in the middle of April. There is no strong indicator on the amount of precipitation, but wintry events are possible through most of March in New England because of the cold weather pattern.