Archive for year: 2014

So far, this summer is going about how we thought it would. The overriding theme of our summer forecast was for a “warm” summer with a lack of extreme heat. To date, the warmest it’s been at TF Green Airport is 90°. It may make it to 90° in the next couple of days, but it will not be much above 90. After that, there is little chance of 90° heat in the next 7-14 days. By comparison, there were 12 days over 92° by July 20 of last year.

The next few days will feature hazy, breezy, and humid weather. There is a t-storm threat, but it’s primarily inland – unless they happen at night, in which case the storms may hang on better near the coast. Showers/storms will likely be scattered, and some places may not see any rain this workweek.

Friday into the weekend looks pleasant, with lower humidity and highs in the low 80s. An approaching front will bring the chance of showers or storms in the mid to late weekend. It’s a little early to give exact timing on the front, but it looks like it will be between Saturday night and Sunday night.

Cool weather will arrive in the Upper Midwest in the next 7 days, and the boundary between the cool weather and warm/humid weather will not be far from Southern New England, and that could mean a few unsettled days early next week. Once again, with summertime rains, it’s tough to talk specifics so far away from the event, but, let’s just say showers are possible Mon-Wed. With cool weather to our west, it looks like we’ll be free from big-time heat through July 20.

The Right Weather Spring Outlook turned out to be pretty accurate. The overall weather pattern has not changed too much in the last few months, and we were right about the spring gradually getting warmer (relative to normal) and May breaking the streak of six consecutive colder than normal months in Southeastern New England. We also called for near-normal precipitation, and TF Green Airport was only 8% above normal for the season. Now, as we head into June, it’s time to turn our attention to meteorological summer (June, July, August) and the Atlantic Hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30.

Last year’s hurricane outlook was a disaster for most forecasting outlets. It was an uneventful year after most forecasters predicted an above normal season. This year, assuming an El Niño continues to develop, the forecast could be easier. Typically, there is below normal activity in the Atlantic Basin during an El Niño. Of the last ten El Niños, there was only one year (2004) with above normal hurricane activity. As you can see in the video, we are not expecting this to be a particularly active year. However, that does not prevent Southern New England from being hit by a storm. The last hurricane to make landfall in Southern New England was Bob in 1991 – an El Niño year.

It does not look like the overall weather pattern will change much in the first half of June, and possibly longer. We are not expecting any extended searing heat for most or all of June. It’s possible the pattern could shift in July and/or August, but we do not expect as many 90° days as last year (13) in the Providence area this summer. Having said that, we think the average temperature will be slightly above normal.

Rainfall-wise, There will be several shots at steady rain in the first half of June, so the start of the summer may be wetter than normal. We expect the entire summer to feature near-normal rainfall. It’s always a tricky forecast because of the hit and miss nature of summer thunderstorms. See the video for more on our outlook.

May 2014 is well on the way to being warmer than normal (1.9° above normal through May 26), but there have not been many extremes this month. Aside from a three day stretch from May 10-12 when the temperature averaged more than 10° above normal, all but three days have been within 4° of normal. Last year, 19 of 31 days were at least 5° from normal in either direction. The point is, we are experiencing a fairly typical New England spring, and I’m really going to roll my eyes when we get some warm weather and someone inevitably says “so much for spring, we’re going straight from winter to summer…”.

The weather will turn quite cool in the middle of this week, but should rebound to slightly below normal by Thursday and Friday. A cold front threatens with showers on Friday and/or Saturday. It does not look like a soaker. The source region for most of our weather in the next couple of weeks will be Ontario, Canada, and that means we will not be seeing any huge warm-ups. I don’t expect it to be extremely cool, either, and the temperature should average near normal through the first week of June.

Aside from the cold front threatening with showers late this week, the next shot at rain looks like it will be around Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.