Long-Range Forecast – August 12
The weather this week will be marred by a super soaker Wednesday. Before then it will be seasonable, and afterwards it will be a bit on the cool side Thursday into Saturday. The weather pattern is showing hints of heat in the last two weeks of August, but there are also signs that the weather will be unsettled from time to time. At this point, we are leaning toward a warmer than normal weather pattern for the end August, although it’s uncertain as to whether the warmth will come primarily at night in an unsettled pattern or during the day and night with some “dog days” weather. Even though it goes against the grain of this summer, I think we could have a few mid to upper 80s or even low 90s late this month.
This time of the year, we have to keep our eye on the tropics. The National Hurricane Center was looking at a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, but it is unlikely to develop into a tropical system.
- ECMWF shows some unsettled weather next week as the warmer pattern tries to establish itself in the Eastern United STates
- Warmth showing up in the Eastern US in late August for a change
- Higher than normal 500mb heights bodes well for warmth in the Eastern US
- GEFS members still show a decent amount of rain in days 7-14. The GEFS is much wetter than the EPS ensembles that we are favoring.
- First seven days look pretty cool in the Eastern United States
- A nice turnaround to warmer weather in the second week










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