Long-Range Forecast – June 22

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With a high temperature of 87°, Monday was the warmest day of the month in the Providence area. It will likely be the warmest day of the week. A strong cold front may trigger thunderstorms on Tuesday. The weather looks seasonable in the middle of the week. Looking ahead to Friday and the weekend, a couple of disturbances could bring showers. The first one arrives late Thursday night into Friday morning. It does not look like a washout, but showers are possible for the first half of Friday, and there may not be a ton of afternoon sunshine.

Dry weather is likely on Saturday before another storm threatens late in the weekend. At least some showers are likely on Sunday as the slow-moving large system moves out of the Mid-Atlantic. In a worst-case scenario, Sunday could be a cool washout. The overall weather pattern looks a bit cool for late June into early July. It also will be unsettled in the Eastern United States, and we’re expecting above normal precipitation in the next couple of weeks. This pattern will bring rain chances every few days, so it may take a little luck for the entire 4th of July weekend to stay dry.

Long-Range Forecast – June 19

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The temperature has not gotten close to 90° so far this month in the Providence area. In fact, it has not reached 80° nearly 75% of the time through the 18th. Summer officially arrives Sunday, and with it will come leftover rain from Tropical Storm Bill. Monday will be dry and much warmer, with highs in the 80s. A disturbance moving through on Tuesday could bring another round of showers.

It does not look particularly warm at the end of next workweek. Highs may struggle to reach 80°, which is the normal high in late June. The pattern looks fairly active for early Summer, and another round of rain is possible at the end of next workweek. Of course, in the summer, with warmer air able to hold more moisture, there is the potential for heavy downpours. That’s something we’ll be watching on Sunday and with any system that heads our way next week.

Looking ahead to the last few days of June and early July, there does not seem to be much very warm weather heading for Southeastern New England. Another disturbance with rain or showers may roll through early in the week leading up to the fourth. The early indications are that it could, at least briefly, get very warm to hot just before the 4th of July weekend.

Long-Range Forecast – June 15

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It’s hard to believe that we are already more than two weeks into June and the 4th of July is right around the corner. Monday was a setback weather-wise, but we needed the rain in Southeastern New England. It looks like we’ll get back to warmer weather on Tuesday. Overall in the next couple of weeks, the temperature will be hanging within a few degrees of normal for this time of they year. That’s highs in the upper 70s to low 80s away from the coast. There is a chance of some rain from the system that will bring several inches to Texas in the next couple of days. Eventually, late in the weekend or early next week, what’s left of that system could get caught up in the jet stream and bring some showers.

It will be relatively fast-moving pattern in the northern half of the United States, and that means we will not get stuck in any particular weather pattern. Cold fronts will move through every few days bringing the chance of showers/storms and a new airmass from central Canada. It does not look like there is any real big-time heat ahead through the end of June. Check out the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – June 8

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June is off to an unseasonably cool start. There has not yet been a warmer than normal day in the Providence area. Through the first eight days the temperature is running about 7° cooler than normal. After a rainy start, the weather has been mainly dry. Scattered showers are likely on Tuesday, but it does not look like a total washout.

We’ll get back to warm/dry weather from midweek into the weekend. A cold front will threaten with some mid-weekend showers and thunderstorms. It will likely get less humid on Sunday. Fair weather will continue into early next week before showers/storms threaten again late Monday or Tuesday.

The overall pattern does not look too extreme through the next couple of weeks. The normal high temperature reaches 80° in two weeks, and it looks like that’s the ballpark that most days will be in around Father’s Day. There was unseasonable warmth in late-May, and unseasonably cold weather to start June. You can expect the pattern to be closer to normal into late-June.

Rainfall-wise, it does not look like there will be many chances of organized soaking rain in the next 10 days or so. Showers are possible Tuesday, mid-weekend, and early to middle of next week.

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Long-Range Forecast – June 2

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June is here, but the weather feels more like April! After a wet and very cool start to the month, the sun will return on Wednesday. A northeast to east breeze will keep it on the cool side for early June. Thursday looks decent, but a disturbance moving in from the Atlantic could bring cool showers on Friday.

Looking ahead to the weekend, it will be dry and seasonably cool. Highs and lows will be just a few degrees below the normals (75/55) for this time of the year. A cold front approaching the Northeast on Monday will bring showers sometime between late Monday and early Tuesday. There are some signs that this system may stall over the Northeast, and that would leave it unsettled with scattered showers lingering through the midweek. The early outlook for next weekend is for dry weather, but it does not look like there will be a huge warm-up into the upper 80s or 90s in the next couple of weeks.

Long-Range Forecast – May 29

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All of Southeastern New England has seen less than 25% of the normal precipitation so far this month. In most spots, it’s closer to 10-15% of the normal precipitation. In the past 60 days, all of Southeastern New England has received less than half the normal amount of precipitation. It’s no wonder there is a moderate drought throughout the area. There is some relief ahead with potential for a moderate to heavy showers late in the weekend and early next week. It’s unclear exactly how it will play out, but the potential exists for a couple of inches of rain over a three-day stretch. It will be unseasonably cool from late Sunday into the middle of next week. The temperature could struggle to reach 60 on Monday and/or Tuesday.

High pressure will arrive on Wednesday, and the early outlook is for fair weather with a warming trend into next weekend. The temperature should be back above normal by Friday or Saturday. We’re keeping our eye on the Western Atlantic Ocean near the Southeast US coast for storm development in the first couple of weeks of June. Anything that develops there needs to be watched closely. Overall, it will continue to be warmer than normal most of the time after the cool interlude early next week. The pattern favors near to above normal precipitation in the next couple of weeks, with the lion’s share coming Sun-Tue of next week.

Long-Range Forecast – May 26

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The ocean is still on the cool side in late-May, and that is tempering this week’s warm-up in a good chunk of Southeastern New England. North and west of I-95 the temperature is reaching  the 80s, but it is staying in the 70s and 60s closer to the coast. The same general trend will continue for the rest of this workweek. Clouds may actually be stubborn on a day or two near the coast. It’s not unusual for the shoreline to not break out of the low clouds and fog in this type of pattern at this time of the year. It will not be too cool at night, but they’ll not be sweltering mid-summer nights, either. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

There is a good chance of showers on Sunday, and they may linger into early next week. After that, relatively warm and muggy air will works its way back into the Northeast by mid to late next week. The pattern does not look as dry as it has been lately. That’s good news as all of Southern New England slipped into a moderate drought as of last week. Check out the video for more.

 

Long-Range Forecast – May 22

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The Memorial Day weekend will begin with unseasonably cool weather, but do not expect it to last for long. A developing southwest breeze and ridge off the East Coast will lead to an extended stretch of very warm and muggy weather in Southern New England. The temperature could reach 90° inland as soon as Tuesday afternoon, and a heat wave away from the coast is not out of the question next week. There is not a very high potential for rain in this pattern. Thunderstorms are possible at times late next week, but it looks like most of the action will be west of Southeastern New England.

Overall, a warmer than normal pattern will hold through the end of May into early June. The ridge may break down bringing an end to the hot weather, but it looks like it will stay rather muggy, and overnight low temperatures will be well above normal most of the time after Memorial Day through the following week. The ocean temperature is slowly warming, but it may still be cool enough to allow for patchy dense fog at night that takes a while to burn off in the morning on some days. Check out the video for more on the upcoming pattern.

Long-Range Forecast – May 19

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Through Monday, rain totals were running at about 10% of normal in the last month in Southeastern New England. Showers on Tuesday morning provided some spots with more than 0.25″ of rain. After those showers, we’ll be back in a mainly dry pattern for the rest of the workweek and through most or all of the Memorial Day weekend. There are two systems that could bring showers in that time frame. The first is on Friday as a storm slides out to sea south of Southern New England. At this point, it looks like it will stay away. There is also the possibility of showers on Memorial Day if a backdoor cold front slides far enough south and a wave of low pressure rides along it. This could happen, but there are about equal odds that it stays north of SNE and the weather stays fair and warm on Monday.

A system coming through in the middle of next week will threaten with showers. After that, the pattern gets tricky – as they often do when we’re transitioning from spring to summer. From my perspective, it looks like a mild to warmer than normal pattern with a better chance of some rain in late May and early June. The pattern looks fairly progressive, which means no extended warm/cold stretches, and probably a rain threat every 3-4 days.

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Long-Range Forecast – May 14

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It will not be quite as dry in the next week or two as it has been in the past three weeks, but it does not look like a very wet pattern, either. The total rainfall will likely be below normal. The best chances for rain are Saturday, Tuesday, and late in the Memorial Day weekend. Saturday and Tuesday look like showers, with Tuesday having the best chance of 0.25″ of rain. That’s not very much.

Temperature-wise, it may get warm on Sunday, but the wind will shift to the northeast on Monday, and it looks seasonable or a bit cool for a good chunk of next workweek. The temperature will likely bounce back to warmer than normal over the Memorial Day weekend.