Long-Range Forecast – September 22

September 2015 is looking a lot like September 2014 in Southeastern New England. You may not remember it, but last September was very dry, with just 19% of the normal rainfall in Providence. It was also warmer than normal, but not as toasty as this September. If we don’t seen any measurable rain for the rest of this month, which is a distinct possibility, then there will be 28% of the normal precipitation for the month in Providence.

A northeast breeze will keep the temperature close to normal through the end of the workweek. A storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast may drift far enough north to bring mostly cloudy skies at times this weekend and early next week. At this point, it looks unlikely that the storm will come close enough for steady rain in RI and/or SE MA between Sunday and Tuesday. If the storm stays out to sea, as expect, then the dry pattern which began on September 14 may last through the end of the month. There are signs, however, that the pattern will get more active by mid-October. See the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – September 18

So far this month, there has only been one cooler than normal day in the Providence area, and that was by just one degree. The month is running a whopping 5° warmer than normal. It’s the warmest first 18 days of September since 1983, and fourth warmest since 1932. It will stay warm on Saturday before cooler weather filters in Sunday into Monday. The temperature may actually be slightly below normal early next week, but it won’t last for long. Another surge of mild to warm air arrives in the middle to end of the workweek.

This is a tricky precipitation pattern to forecast. We are leaning toward it being mainly dry for the next couple of weeks. There will be a lot of stormy area from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico through Florida to off the Southeastern United States coast. If an organized storm, possibly sub-tropical in nature, drifts north, then we’d get a good soaking. Right now, it looks like most of the action will stay off the Northeast coast, with high pressure from Eastern Canada keeping the wet weather at sea. That’s not great news since the area has a precipitation deficit for the year.

 

Long-Range Forecast – September 15

This week will be one of the nicest of the year in Southeastern New England. We are enjoying warm afternoons and comfortable nights, with low humidity and clear skies. The great weather will last into the weekend. A cold front will pass on Sunday, but there will likely not be much, if any, rain with it. Look for a cool-down early next week before it warms up again in the midweek. We’ll be keeping an eye on any unsettled weather off the Southeast or Carolina coasts, but it looks like high pressure over the Northeast will be strong enough to keep it at bay (or sea).

September will go in the books with well above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation (for most of the area). There are some spots that picked up heavy rain with last week’s thunderstorms, but they were not widespread enough to cover all RI and SE MA.

Long-Range Forecast – September 11

The 97° high temperature in Providence on Wednesday was the hottest September day since 1980, and third hottest since 1937. The heat wave between Monday and Wednesday was the hottest three-day stretch in September since 1983. Since then, we have been cooled by moderate to heavy rain Thursday and Thursday night. The weather will be pleasant to start the weekend, with above normal high temperatures on Saturday. Scattered showers are possible on Sunday, but it does not look like a washout. It will be near or a bit cooler than normal Sunday into Monday, with clouds lingering on Monday.

The weather pattern looks warm and dry in the middle to end of next week. Highs will reach the 80s inland by midweek, and may top out in the mid 80s Thursday or Friday. That’s a solid 10° warmer than normal for mid-September. There may be some late-workweek showers as a cold front passes, but I would not count on much rain. A relatively warm pattern continues into the last 10 days of September, and it does not look very wet through most of the period from Sep 20-25. Check out the video for more details.

Long-Range Forecast – September 7

September is cooking so far in Southeastern New England. The temperature is running more than 4° warmer than normal in the Providence area. It hit 90° at TF Green on Monday afternoon. Another 90° day is likely on Tuesday. The humidity is sticking around, too. Lows will be about 10° warmer than normal through the middle of the week. Wednesday afternoon may not be as hot with more of a southerly component to the wind, but it will still be much warmer than normal for September.

Cooler weather finally arrives late in the workweek. With it will come showers and thunderstorms Thursday and/or Friday. The best chance of rain is from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. There is a good possibility of a decent soaking – at least for some of Southeastern New England as low pressure that is near Florida today is drawn north by the approaching cold front.

The early outlook for the weekend is for better weather on Saturday than Sunday. Both days look seasonable with highs in the 70s. Sunday does not look like a washout, but we’ll keep an eye on a similar setup to Friday, with a storm possibly developing along a front. The early to middle part of next week looks dry and seasonable. Showers are possible late next week. Overall, the relatively warm September will continue, just not to the degree that we’re seeing now. Check out the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – September 3

September is off to a hot start in Southeastern New England. It will turn briefly cooler Friday into the weekend before much warmer than normal weather returns for the end of the Labor Day weekend and next week. A couple of 90° days are possible in the middle of the week.

If you’re looking or an extended cool-down or fall preview in the next two weeks, I think you’re out of luck. The pattern will stay mostly warmer than normal through mid-September. We are in a mainly dry pattern for the past two weeks, and although there will be a shower threat in the mid to late workweek, and possibly some rain next weekend, most of the next two weeks look dry.

The tropics are quiet, aside from Tropical Storm Fred which way out to the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and not heading west. Looking ahead into fall, the period of Sep-Nov will most likely be warmer than normal in Southeastern New England. It will be buoyed by what is shaping up to be a very warm September. We do not expect October and November to be as warm – relative to normal. It will likely get wetter in October and November as the jet stream strengthens and El Niño begins to assert itself.

Long-Range Forecast – August 31

15 of the last 16 days of August were warmer than normal in the Providence area. The temperature hit 90° six times during the month. The average temperature was 2.6° warmer than normal. There was 77% of the normal precipitation at TF Green, but that number varies throughout Southern New England due to the localized nature of the thunderstorms this month.

We will roll into September with more summer-like weather through the middle of the week. A brief cool-down to near normal conditions is likely Friday into early Saturday before it starts to heat back up Sunday into Labor Day. Highs in the 90s are possible on Monday. Aside from a passing shower or thunderstorm late Thursday, there is not much of a rain threat in the next week.

While the first week of September will be much warmer than normal, it looks like the middle of the month will be closer to normal in terms of both temperature and precipitation. The pattern will get more active, and cold fronts will bring rain threats every three days or so. Hurricane season peaks in the next week. Other than Hurricane Fred, which is a threat only to the Eastern Atlantic Ocean islands, there is not much going on in the tropics. Check out the video for more.

Long-Range Forecast – August 28

Friday morning was the coolest in the Providence area in more than two weeks. The temperature fell into the 50s at TF Green for the first time since August 10. The comfortably cool weather will not last for too long as another surge of warmth arrives this weekend and continues well into next week. It will not be humid again for a few days, but the muggy weather will build during next week.

The temperature will be running well above normal at the start of September. 90° heat is possible in the middle of next week. That’s not what kids and teachers are hoping to hear as they head back to school. It will be dry through at least Monday, and possibly through all of next workweek. Scattered showers thunderstorms are possible between Tuesday and Thursday, but it does not look like widespread rain.

Tropical Storm Erika will likely be near Florida early next week, and could meander near the Southeast for several days. Eventually, some of the moisture from the storm may be drawn north. It’s tough to know how exactly how that will play out, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on it. Looking at the big picture, September is shaping up to be a rather warm month in the Eastern US.

Long-Range Forecast – August 24

August continues to trend warmer than normal in Southeastern New England. High temperatures during this humid stretch have not been too far above normal, but the low temperatures have been 6-10° warmer than normal. Through Monday, the month is running about 2° warmer than normal in the Providence area. Showers were limited over the weekend, and it looks like August will be a drier than normal month in Southeastern New England.

The humidity will finally break on Wednesday as a cold front moves offshore. We are expecting delightful weather late in the workweek. Highs will be near 80 with partly to mostly sunny skies. It will get warmer this weekend. Right now, Saturday looks like the nicer of the two days. Sunday may feature more clouds as very warm weather advances into the Eastern United States.

An early-September heat wave is not out of the question next week. A big ridge in the jet stream will set up shop over the Eastern United States, and that will pump the heat into the Northeast. There should be at least one 90° day in Southeastern New England, and if it comes together just right, there may be several.

We’ll also look for more action in the tropics. Danny fizzled, but another wave may develop in its wake. It’ll be no threat to land for a while.

Long-Range Forecast – August 20

Humidity will stay high into next week, and there is a general shower and thunderstorm threat that will also continue for several day. This unsettled pattern comes after a mainly dry stretch since August 11. By the end of the month, precipitation totals are likely to be pretty close to normal in the Providence area. The average temperature for the month will likely be the warmest (relative to normal) of the summer. So far, the temperature in Providence is running 1.6° above normal. It will likely be even further above normal by month’s end. June was a hair below normal, and July was 1° above normal.

A slow-moving system will deliver scattered showers and thunderstorms between Friday and Monday. It will not be raining the whole time, but there could be some heavy downpours because of the copious moisture over Southeastern New England. Highs will only be in the upper 70s to low 80s – not too far from normal. Lows, however, will be close to 70° – around 10° warmer than normal. Keep your eyes to the sky and on the radar this weekend if you have outdoor plans.

We’ll be watching an offshore storm this weekend. It may become a sub-tropical storm, but should stay far enough away that it only brings some rough surf to area beaches. If it manages to swing the wind around to the northeast, that will help to lower the humidity a bit, but it won’t be exactly dry, either.

An ocean storm will likely stay far enough away that it does not have a big impact in SNE early next week

An ocean storm will likely stay far enough away that it does not have a big impact in SNE early next week

The humidity will finally break in the middle of next week when the wind shifts to the west. That will likely happen on Wednesday. We’re looking at a dry and warm stretch to end August and start September. Looking at the pattern, more 90° heat is not out of the question. See the video for more.