Long-Range Forecast – April 11

/0 Comments/in , /by

It looks like the weather will take a favorable turn in the middle of this week. Rain on Tuesday will give way to dry weather by Wednesday. High pressure north of New England will keep it seasonable or slightly cool with a northeast breeze into the weekend. An offshore storm may enhance the northeast breeze at times.

It looks like the dry weather will hold this weekend with a warming trend likely Saturday and Sunday. The dry stretch may end in the middle of next week as a storm brings rain sometime between Tuesday and Thursday. The overall pattern favors seasonable or cool weather continuing into late April. It does not look particularly stormy, but it will likely not be as dry as the stretch from Wednesday into early next week.

The strong El Niño is fading, and some computer models are indicating a flip to a La Niña by the fall. I’m not certain the flip will happen that quickly, but the fading El Niño means that the tropical season is likely to be more active than a quiet 2015 season.

 

Long-Range Forecast – April 3

/0 Comments/in , /by

April is off to a rough start with snow on two of the first three days of the month.Monday’s storm led to some headaches for travelers as roads were a little slick early in the day. It will be relatively cold through the midweek, even as sunshine returns on Tuesday. As soon as the wind shifts to the south and warmer weather returns, there will be a storm system bringing rain Thursday afternoon and night.

A deep dip in the jet stream (trough) will move into the Northeast after the storm on Friday, and the weekend will either be very cool and dry or another storm (or two) developing near the base of the trough will come close enough to bring rain and possibly mixed precipitation. Right now, we’re leaning towards the dry/cool scenario, which is the lesser of two evils, I guess. The temperature will be running 10-15° below normal this weekend.

The pattern looks unsettled and somewhat cool next week, too. More rain is possible in the midweek, and there could be another storm bringing rain into next weekend. Overall, there is not a heck of a lot to look forward to through mid-April. It looks like the best chance of seeing near or above normal temperatures is not with sunshine, but with the rain events and a southerly wind. Precipitation is likely to be well above normal through mid-month, and the temperature will be near or below normal. Really, the only chance of near normal is if the storm track is to our west and brings in mild air that stays for 1-2 days. If the storm track shifts and we don’t get the warmer southerly winds with the rain, then it will average well below normal through the middle of April.

Long-Range Forecast – March 21

/0 Comments/in , /by

The strong early spring sun quickly melted Monday morning’s snow in Southeastern New England. More mild weather is ahead from the midweek, as the temperature reaches the upper 40s on Tuesday, and most likely the mid 50s on Wednesday. A back-door cold front could drop it back into the 40s on Thursday as a northeast breeze develops. It’s very likely that the front will make its way into Southeastern Massachusetts. It’s not as certain that it will get that cool in all of RI. Mild air returns on Friday, but with it comes rain. It may move out in the afternoon, salvaging at least part of the day. Easter weekend starts with a cool clouds on Saturday. Easter Sunday will start with temperatures in the low to mid 30s under mostly sunny skies. The afternoon looks dry and milder inland than at the coast. Highs will range from the mid 40s to the low 50s.

A rain storm is likely early next week. It should arrive on Monday, and may linger into Tuesday. The pattern looks pretty active in early April, with precipitation chances every few days. In fact, with cooler weather likely, some snow cannot be ruled out. There is nothing imminent, but we have definitely seen warmer patterns in the Northeast to start April! Regardless of snow, it should be a relatively wet stretch from late March through the first 10 days or so of April.

Long-Range Forecast – March 7

/0 Comments/in , /by

After a cool stretch late last week and this weekend, Southeastern New England is heading into an unseasonably warm pattern in the middle of the week. A back-door cold front will bring showers and cooler weather late Thursday, but the cool-down will not be too drastic, with highs still above normal this weekend.

The weekend looks mainly dry before showers threaten late Sunday into Monday. The storm system coming through early next week does not look like a super-soaker, and we’ll get back to dry and relatively warm weather in the midweek.

A lot of people are asking if winter is officially done, and I think it’s too early to say that we will not have another snow or mixed precipitation threat in Southeastern New England. While there is no threat of wintry precipitation in the next 10 days or so, the pattern looks a bit cooler, and somewhat active around the official start of spring on March 20. I’m not saying that it will snow at that time, but I’m also not going to say that it’s time to put a final nail in the coffin of winter 2015-16.

Long-Range Forecast – February 1

/0 Comments/in , /by

February began with a record high temperature on Monday. It reached 66° in Providence, breaking the old record of 64° set in 1989. It won’t be as warm for the rest of the week, but the overall mild theme continues. Rain is likely in the midweek on Wednesday. It will be windy and very mild, with highs in the 50s.

A storm will form on the front as it stalls offshore, but the odds favor most or all the storm missing New England and heading out to sea. There is around a 30% chance of some snow, with a 10% chance of more than 2″ in the Providence area. The next shot at snow is on Sunday with an Alberta Clipper to the north. Once again, there is a low chance of measurable snow.

Another storm will threaten around Tuesday of next week. There is a better chance for steady precipitation, but the storm track may not be conducive for all snow. The overall active pattern continues through mid-month. Unlike last year, there will always be a precipitation-type issue because there is just not as much available cold air this year. The storm tracks will be critical.

 

Long-Range Forecast – January 29

/0 Comments/in , /by

January is wrapping with warmer than normal weather in Southeastern New England. The winter storm last weekend cut into the snow deficit, but there is no sign of steady snow in the near-term. The next significant precipitation will be all rain in the middle of next (Wed PM into Thu AM). The temperature will be running 10-20° warmer than normal from Mon-Wed of next week.

Cooler weather arrives in the wake of the storm late next week. It looks mainly dry through next weekend. There is some promise for snow in the middle of the month as the storm track becomes more active. The pattern looks favorable for a storm somewhere in the Eastern United States the weekend of Valentine’s Day. That would be unfortunate for restaurateurs, especially since last year featured a Valentine’s Day storm in Southern New England.

While the pattern will be colder in the middle of the month, it will not approach the extreme cold that we endured most of last February. Among other things, there is not a deep snowpack in the Northeast to enhance the cold air.

Long-Range Forecast – January 26

/0 Comments/in , /by

Relatively mild weather continues through the middle of this week in the wake of the weekend snowstorm. An ocean storm on Friday will likely not come close enough to bring steady snow to Southeastern New England. We haven’t totally slammed the door on a farther west track, but it’s pretty close to a done deal.

The weather will stay mild through the weekend into early February. We’re watching a system early next week that may bring either light rain or mixed precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. After that, it looks relatively mild into the midweek. A cold front passing through in the midweek will bring colder weather late in the workweek. However, the pattern still does not look entirely favorable for a snowy storm track in Southeastern New England. When storms develop, the storm track looks to be too far west for all snow in RI and SE MA through early February.

Long-Range Forecast – Jan 14After a few days of cold weather, it will all retreat as the next storm system approaches this weekend. Once again, we’ll see much more rain than snow in Southern New England. It’s the story of the winter so far, but that was the case last year through mid-January, too. Are we going to see a huge pattern flip like we saw in early 2015? Most likely not, but it should get more wintry than the paltry snow threats we’ve had so far this winter. A weak system could bring a bit of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. It will not be a huge deal, with an inch or two of accumulation possible in a worst-case scenario. Most of next workweek will be cold and dry, with the coldest and windy weather likely Monday through Tuesday. Highs will only be in the 20s. The setup is decent for a storm next weekend. It’s a long way out, but as you can see in the video, the computer model ensembles are in decent agreement. It’s way too early to say how big of an impact it would have, what the precipitation type would be, etc. Just keep it in the back of your mind that there could be a storm Sat-Sun. Looking farther down the road, the weather does not look extremely cold to end January and begin February. The southern branch of the jet stream stays active, but that hasn’t yield much snow so far this season. Unless the storm track gets locked in just offshore, this may end up being a more of a winter to forget than remember for snow-lovers. https://vimeo.com/151851345

/0 Comments/in , /by

After a few days of cold weather, it will all retreat as the next storm system approaches this weekend. Once again, we’ll see much more rain than snow in Southern New England. It’s the story of the winter so far, but that was the case last year through mid-January, too. Are we going to see a huge pattern flip like we saw in early 2015? Most likely not, but it should get more wintry than the paltry snow threats we’ve had so far this winter.

A weak system could bring a bit of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. It will not be a huge deal, with an inch or two of accumulation possible in a worst-case scenario. Most of next workweek will be cold and dry, with the coldest and windy weather likely Monday through Tuesday. Highs will only be in the 20s.

The setup is decent for a storm next weekend. It’s a long way out, but as you can see in the video, the computer model ensembles are in decent agreement. It’s way too early to say how big of an impact it would have, what the precipitation type would be, etc. Just keep it in the back of your mind that there could be a storm Sat-Sun.

Looking farther down the road, the weather does not look extremely cold to end January and begin February. The southern branch of the jet stream stays active, but that hasn’t yield much snow so far this season. Unless the storm track gets locked in just offshore, this may end up being a more of a winter to forget than remember for snow-lovers.

Long-Range Forecast – January 4

/0 Comments/in , /by

Monday was the first colder than normal day in the Providence area since December 1. The cold shot is sticking around into the midweek, with cold sunshine on Tuesday. Clear skies and light winds will have temperatures in the teens again Wednesday morning. Wednesday should warm into the upper 30s with sunshine and not much of a breeze.

The end of the workweek will be relatively mild and dry. Some stormy weather is possible between Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Right now, it does not look like more than rain showers. Another storm system is possible late in the weekend and/or early next week. Once again, it looks like more rain than snow.

From the middle of next week through January 20th has the potential for snowier events. It looks like there will be enough cold air in the Eastern US most of the time, but a couple of things need to come together if there is to be significant snow in that time frame in Southeastern New England. The storm track will likely be too far inland for snow this weekend and early next week. The storm track would have to shift farther south, but not so far south that the action goes from the Southeastern United States out to sea. For now, let’s call it a “high potential” pattern for snow. Whether its potential is realized, is another story.